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Marist Institute for Public Opinion’s Lee Miringoff on the close Presidential race leading up to the election.
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Got a joining us now is we've married off from Marist institute -- public opinion Harris college is a frequent guest on this program.
Now I know that's -- you'll latest poll came out on Saturday.
And it showed President Obama with a small lead in Virginia a two point lead in Florida and a bigger lead in Ohio.
But I want you to tell us about independence.
And also a bounce around that level of enthusiasm -- first of all the independence whether -- -- let me first of all things in both in Virginia and Florida it's within the error margin we're not calling you to lead.
Those could go either way we do at the edge for Obama in Ohio.
Now on as far as the independents are concerned they are narrowly in Mitt Romney's -- favor and that's critical factor when you talk about the fact that.
All the Democrats are for Obama and all the Republicans practically -- are for Romney he independence become.
A critical middle group and there and right now now leading edges to to Mitt Romney did you say it was -- among independents did you say it was a narrow edge to Mitt -- I got on the other polls that show what is in the 67 use a much -- -- You know in Virginia we have -- -- five in Ohio we have it for.
Florida is like wondered two point so.
-- -- -- look we're talking about very very close state so the answer to the question what group matters.
They all do have a slight advantage for five points among the group.
Could be the tipping point so in -- you know when the dust settles it may in fact be the independence in the state like Virginia that make the difference comprises leading like fly.
Aren't -- I don't as Charles Payne.
-- jobs your poll has come on are a lot of criticism for being so heavily weighted toward Democrats.
Everyone's saying it is the enthusiasm gap is such that there's no way to world that the model -- should begin.
With the same assumptions of Democrats who turn out that they did last time around what do you think your critics -- why haven't you adjusted for that.
Well wolf first of all we don't wait by parties so that that's just a wrong assumption parties have variable if you waited by party and oh wait they thought oh for McCain what do what.
Second of all when we look at the party differences.
-- Ohio is showing to be very democratic well Obama is ahead in that state are Virginia numbers last time.
It was a plot six for the Democrats and ID now only plus three so we actually have the report the state more Republican than it was four years ago and things in Florida so frankly.
People have targeted the Ohio numbers.
Where they might also target the fact.
That we're lower on conservatives lower I'm sorry were higher on concern is lowered among young people so you can't just.
You know target one factor and say well the poll is skewed in one way or another.
The numbers are right.
They were four years ago we had every battleground state right in fact -- an undercount and -- a little bit in each of those states okay I'm very confident of these numbers -- do you do a poll in Pennsylvania.
No we haven't -- Pennsylvania and I think that's a big wild card and all this -- you know it's a little late for Romney getting there there's a huge democratic registration advantage.
But you know.
Ohio may be the exception not the Bellwether this time because of the auto bailout.
You know the campaign run his campaign decided to go into Ohio not Pennsylvania.
It may have been better from to go -- Pennsylvania even though it's more democratic he didn't have the auto bailout issue at as much like it may have been a mistake.
I just -- -- -- for a second on this the idea of intensity the inter entity of desire and intention to vote.
Last night in Pennsylvania in an open field Mitt Romney drew I -- told 28000.
People on a very cold night.
It was a very enthusiastic.
Crowd.
How can you measure that happy factor that into -- polls well.
-- you ask about intensity and enthusiasm in when we talk about enthusiasm.
Throughout the campaign and still in most of the battleground states today Mitt Romney has an advantage among voters who say they're very enthusiastic what's the advantage of what how big advantage.
Let's take the state of Florida it's six points 81 to 75.
So his supporters 81% say they're very enthusiastic.
75 while and prefer the president and defense of big effort yet it is a big difference do you -- back.
Into your overall Obama -- overall polling -- for example Florida.
Well we're just telling you right now those are the numbers they are not part of the likely voter model we use interest and interest is it a better barometer sometimes enthusiasm Hillary pull the lever once you can't -- it hard.
So the question as.
Who's -- -- actually turn out.
And I think that is ultimately the question what is the recipe gets elected -- back enthusiasm matters is no doubt about it and -- and I'm wondering can you actually account for that in the polling figures that you released.
Can you do that you can do that.
Yes and and doesn't affect -- tell you right now -- and flirted 8175.
Among those who are very enthusiastic so it is a difference let me say that Romney's getting bigger crowds than McCain got four years ago.
And Obama is getting smaller crowds.
Then he got four years ago the question is is there -- big enough difference to to cross the election who ultimately will have the electoral vote advantage -- -- -- that okay I'm asking everyone about guest this morning to call it now.
Who wins tomorrow.
Well I'll I'll I'll put -- at 277 Obama to 61.
Romney -- Ohio Iowa Wisconsin and Nevada going Obama's way in the battleground states.
Romney carrying Florida Virginia Colorado North Carolina and New Hampshire to 77 to 61 -- Pennsylvania surprises.
That will be.
See that just -- all these numbers and any changes who's going to be taking the oath of so as of now you'll calling it for Obama right -- to 77 to 61.
But these states are have very very close margin of error was created in copyright by a pollster to give all the coverage of the world and the.
But -- -- we've had three guests on the show this morning one has called it directly for Romney.
Another has set itself time and you have called it for Obama so -- -- of running the field it was very interesting well that's exactly what it is is that -- that outcome for every possibility.
The -- off thank you very much -- -- project being led us to have a great.
