Ohio the Key State for the Election?
FNC contributor Karl Rove breaks down the presidential race.
- Duration 7:33
- Date Nov 2, 2012
FNC contributor Karl Rove breaks down the presidential race.
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Former deputy chief of staff to president George W.
Bush Karl Rove also Fox News contributor Carl good to have your -- you have said from the outset that this would be eight -- rates.
Did you really expect it to be this type.
The hard to say but it's going to be -- this thing is not going to be settled until the wee hours of Wednesday morning.
Maybe sometime Wednesday in the finished -- in the balance will have a winner but it's going to be I think very very -- And in your most recent profit at all and the Wall Street Journal.
You said it's all about the numbers and amongst the numbers you put forward rose.
A Romney victory -- -- three percentage points.
Are you updating that here tonight.
You're still convinced of that mark.
I still think it'll be close to that margin I mean I do think the sandy had an impact on this race.
A subtle impact but -- let's go beyond the polls and of these polls we have a mass of them let's start looking at the actual turnout -- -- the key for me is Ohio.
And if you take a look at it this far -- -- Karl brought his -- -- -- -- -- read the aerial.
Democrats had voted early.
Or cast an absentee ballot early or had requested absentee ballot compared to 470000.
Democrats traditionally though out both Republicans on election on on on early in early vote.
And Republicans Kerry election date for example for years ago 7121000.
Democrats had voted early cast an absentee ballot.
Vs 372 Republicans so already there are 70070.
-- in 98000 more Republicans.
Have voted already did four years ago while 165000.
Fewer Democrats voted that's a swing of 263000.
Away from the Democrats and towards Republicans.
And guess what.
Obama's margin was 262000.
In -- Most of the fueled by a huge turnout in early voting and that he lost the Election Day voting due to Mitt Romney so.
There's not a good sign and I've been watching this trend for -- in -- in the margins begin big getting bigger on Tuesday.
It was about a 150 some odd thousand.
Now it's larger than -- the swing is larger than what Obama won state by 2000 and an eight this a bad side for President Obama.
And we see it reflected actually in the polls as well if you.
Take a look at a Gallup says fifteen -- early -- late last week 15% of people.
Had voted early they were breaking for -- by fifty to 46 this week pew reports 19% of those surveyed said they voted.
They break for -- -- by 5043.
At -- Obama won the early the last time around according to -- by nineteen points or was winning and at this point by nineteen points.
Now he's losing about seven that's more than enough to flip the election around if it holds -- There are two things -- if if we can go back to your board for -- That -- immediately apparent and one is that there is about a five to four margin by reading correctly.
Democrats over Republicans in the early vote.
Are in 2008.
That ratio was weapons over two times.
It was -- two times to.
Due to -- almost to the wire two to -- and inward and we're talking about here we're talking about here about about less than five to four margin retirement.
Of a difference on the base in this number's gonna.
Continue to grow there's going to be probably the Republicans are probably gonna narrow that gap between the two to somewhere around.
-- a you know 85 or 90000.
Votes and and again I repeat on Election Day it assist -- historically Republicans have carried the vote.
On election even when President Obama -- one in the state in 2008.
He was -- in the Election Day vote and these Republican numbers are a sign of the ground game in Ohio that is strong I was that young guy who's run and it Craig I mean Scott Jennings.
Used to work with me at the White House had told me in early October live busted through all of the metrics.
Of that -- geo TV operation we had in 2004 they -- -- 175000.
Doors last Saturday.
They they've they've knocked on over two million doors made over six man contacts they'll have three may endorsed by Election Day.
And probably somewhere in the vicinity of 88 happening context -- huge.
I've been through a number of times over the in the past months.
About the Republican ground operation -- ground game for the Republicans.
Up against the -- And by the organizer -- I'm I'm not being entirely.
Sarcastic about that it is a strong.
-- ground operation -- the Obama campaign has put forward here.
The strongest some would -- ever.
Are the Republicans in fact going to be able.
We see the intensity we see the polls saying that the Republicans are going to turn out.
In greater numbers that then.
Then Democrats and in these polls.
But do the Republicans have the ground game to assure follow through to to a level of polling -- Yeah well look I don't have the same kind of information -- -- in 2004 to tell you.
Concretely I know in each and every state but that the rich piece -- news the political director of the campaign.
Was the Romney campaign was a veteran of the 04 bush operation handle Colorado.
He he is a fantastic at this focus discipline.
His counterparts at the national committee Jeff Larsen the chief of staff Rick wiley.
The political director they have focused on this and little else.
And it is -- look -- in Ohio they're doing a fantastic job Florida looks like a tremendous job North Carolina Virginia.
Wisconsin we know how what kind of a job there people who do it because we sought in the Scott Walker were gubernatorial race earlier this year in the same people the same phone senators who sent volunteers and place and then the other battleground states.
We're seeing as well what are the reasons that the Republicans are going -- Pennsylvania here at the end -- the state party chairman rob Gleason has done a terrific job with a massive.
Ground game in the state of Pennsylvania same in Michigan -- Bobby shows deck the state Republican chairman is like 23 phone centers operating.
-- at a presidential election year level in a state that.
Has not drawn until recently much advertisement now some of the outside groups are moving into the -- including crossroads group I'm associated with -- in Minnesota and in.
Pennsylvania and part of the reason is looking at people like this -- stack in Michigan and what the Michigan GOP is done and rob Gleason of Pennsylvania.
And you have the Republicans have our our our pounded away on the ground game will see how well it does on election.
-- court for the economy our jobs.
Is that going to be the determinant issue.
Sure and and all of its complexity.
Jobs you know look it's gonna take is that the current rate.
Two years to get back to the level of employment that we had when we win into the recession in the meantime -- will built up a seven year backlog.
Of people who who are are are trying to get into the workforce I mean it will take twenty some odd years to give back to the same level of manufacturing jobs we have in this country.
When we went into recession this is inadequate growth people know what they know -- in their bones they're worried about the deficit to word about the debt they don't like affordable character and build a country.
Could be a lot more prosperous and go in and of growing at a much more rapid pace we think about it we've got anemic recovery.
Or a name aren't.
And we've notes and Karl we're -- -- Richard.
Letting us through the economics on this as role of politics.
-- let's let's hear is governor Romney gonna win Ohio.
I believe -- well yes I mean these these numbers that you look there are lots of conflicting polls they're -- thinks a break it for me.
Nine out of thirteen -- last polls show Romney winning independents you don't lose Ohio after winning independence as a Republican second of all these these.
These early vote numbers are strong as an acre garlic as we -- in Texas.