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Politics of the Jobs Numbers

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  • Description

    WSJ Washington bureau chief Jerry Seib explains how the unemployment numbers could impact the election.

  • Duration 2:42
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This transcript is automatically generated

-- gonna show okay thank you.

Let's look at the politics of those jobs numbers and hurricane sandy we're joined by Wall Street Journal executive Washington editor -- side.

So Jerry would create a 171000.

Jobs -- 725.

K expected but the rate went up -- good or bad for the president.

Look this is up overall a good -- numbers for president bombing in the current environment about as good as he -- hoped for he suggested Genesis is -- almost 50000 higher than most people were predicting.

The tick up in the unemployment rate came for the right reason which is that some other people.

Entered the workforce so.

There's not a great number it's it's a good number and what it will help the president is create a closing argument which you can say look.

The numbers have been good for several months now you just heard him say that on Peter's piece.

In New -- -- is going in the right direction on the other hand you're gonna have Mitt Romney say essentially look.

If people were more enthused that they were in the workforce this number unemployment number would be closer -- nine point 6% which is -- and I saw all right somewhere earlier today.

What -- seven point nine down the last time an incumbent.

Ran for reelection with implement at seven point 8% that was Gerry Ford and Jimmy Carter beat him.

In 1976.

Can Obama defy that trend.

You know it's hard to know because if you go the other press that your back and look at his 1980.

And at this point Ronald -- unemployment rate was about -- see -- the next day before.

When Ronald Reagan was running for reelection it was about seven point three summer which is seven point three is seven point 4% right now.

-- anyone so who knows you know I I think it a lot of this depends not on the data point -- -- sit particular data point is going to be decisive at this point.

What matters is what people think that trend line is they're gonna have a huge debate over the next 48 hours -- that trend line really -- -- 171000.

New jobs in October that we would need 350000.

Jobs per month.

We'll take our employment rate down to 6% in just three years.

Do you think Obama's policies have helped or hurt the job recovery.

Well look I mean they're clearly not as robust as -- but it would've hoped and I think the question is are is the economy here in the jobs.

Economy poised for take off or not that's the real question nobody would look at this picture and say.

This proves that what's happened over the last four years has been wildly successful.

The question is what are we poised for over the next few been years in the next a few months even as you suggest it's a long climb back -- by anybody's estimation.

I think that the interesting question is more what's coming as opposed to what's happened in the past and that's what the argument really is about in politics it's always about what's -- -- next.

The Mitt Romney's argument is you a former years -- this got a job growth stick with the guy -- the Obama argument is we're poised for take off.

Politics of Wall Street both always looking at what's coming next thing.

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