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Bullish on Jobs Recovery

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    Cumberland Advisors chairman David Kotok weighs in on the jobs report in October.

  • Duration 3:47
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Go -- drug big economic headlines today the US economy adding a 171000.

Jobs last month and our next guest says the numbers today or bullish for the recovery as we bring David -- in the chairman and chief investment officer of Cumberland advisors.

Joins us from down in Florida where I'm told -- voted today it would talk a lot about early voting set right David.

I did I voted today I have to watch out for the weather Connell side battered get over there and vote not so that's a big got a question.

You know in terms of Val that's all -- affect the election but in terms of the numbers today which coming into this before sandy and before.

The storm hit areas say this is going to be the big number.

The head of the election Friday jobs report at 8:30 eastern seven point 9% unemployment 170000 plus jobs.

What -- think doesn't have a big impact on the election are not as much as we thought.

I don't know about the election.

Report is a good report it's better than we expected it's above estimates and the revisions were good.

So two things are good in this report now -- -- -- rise so much but they're better than.

What we used to get and we can look back and we can say hey we created a half a million jobs in the last three months.

And the big Labor Department revisions which will be out next year are likely to make these numbers actually a little stronger when they have final -- -- This is good news today.

Is it.

Incrementally good news is that signs that the economy is -- is really coming back maybe even stronger.

Than we thought for example -- brought up a little while ago that people have questions about the quality of the jobs are you still have a lot of people working part time the wanna be full time.

So I would ask you to characterize where you think we are in the recovery right now.

What well that incrementally better for sure.

Small increments for sure.

Temporary work there's still a lot of that there there's this huge uncertainty about what business is gonna do with health care costs.

And there's a fiscal cliff overhang.

And the congress of course resolves nothing in until after the election they won't think about this one.

Look how good this report would've been -- if we didn't have to face fiscal cliff uncertainty friend of mass in our congress it would be much much better.

Is there a reason.

Then -- all that said I understand it's one day and all that but that the stock market's not shooting up on the on the report does that make you think that you're missing something or is that just something else altogether.

Now I think -- stock markets offer four minutes and then went on because of the uncertainty about the election resolution of the fiscal cliff.

We're still in no man's land we're gonna be there until we get to a lame duck session.

And we'll get some clarity after the Election Day next week we do have a bullish piece on labor -- -- first sandy next year.

Give the economy a boost it's -- hard way that they get it by now we're gonna get that have been.

Talk about that on non the last few days and then and then the other side of the comes up that that money doesn't you know -- -- -- trade news comes from the government so it's not like we're richer country because -- spending money.

Although it might help individual companies and stocks which I understand that that has two sides doesn't -- that argument about economic benefits of of the tragedy.

Yeah well it does I -- -- GDP goes up when you rebuild you re employed people to do the rebuilding you have to pay for it so you have to borrow the money to pay it forward state local and federal.

But what you do what you then distributor out the losses it in terms of -- and distribution of the debt the second thing is insurance companies get hit.

But they also -- -- get rate increases and they can justify them with the losses.

So the bottom line of tragedies I hate to say floods storms and so forth.

Is that we get a positive growth -- a year or two later are -- contact with the side today just voted down the state of Florida David thanks I appreciate it.

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