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Minerd on Future of Job Market

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    Guggenheim Partners CIO Scott Minerd weighs in on October's unemployment numbers.

  • Duration 4:16
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-- the day from New Jersey.

And we want to stay on top of his jobs report for you the last jobs report before the presidential election this coming Tuesday.

Unemployment rising to seven point 9% in October of the economy did add a better than expected 171000.

Jobs.

Joining us now Scott minor chief investment officer -- Guggenheim partners.

Scott what -- make the job market even pick up steam from here is -- this kind of sort of -- lackluster growth that we will see in the months and maybe next couple years.

Well it.

It looked -- you know the whole outlook coming out others very very -- And job growth has actually been very good relative to prior expansions.

But the problem is it's not enough to make up for the size of the hole we -- in the crisis.

And going for -- you know actually.

In on I I hate to focus on -- ebitda Sandi probably will be good for job growth over the next couple of months and economic activity.

So you know I think that we're gonna continue to see this trend of improving job growth in the months ahead.

I will -- talk about the road to rebuilding and construction work -- that go on after a storm like this.

Is it doesn't produce economic growth but Scott -- you look at sandy right now and that aftermath.

And the fact that you -- the most populous area in the entire country large swaths of it just completely shut down.

Isn't that going to show up in the growth figures negative -- -- That you bring up the good question -- and I think it's going to distort the numbers for a number of months.

The initial impact I think is that we're going to see.

Probably a decline and unemployment because people couldn't even show up to file for unemployment benefits.

I mean I know that's a perverse outcome.

When people aren't able to get to work.

But it's it's going to be a period of volatile numbers ahead.

But on balance I think that will see a lot of construction workers and a and a lot of other part time workers being pulled into the workforce in the months ahead to rebuild New York in the area.

Much of the cost of that rebuilding will fall on government namely the federal government I believe.

Less than half of the total losses from this storm will be borne by private insurance companies Scott does that then raise the issue when I nations running.

-- the sixteen trillion dollars in national debt they need to -- but think about their priorities.

Because again.

What do you you go -- go out and borrow money to cover this.

-- -- absolutely right you know the it's not like we got a lot of spare pocket change around to handle a crisis like this.

You know fortunately in the scale -- of Washington's borrowings of you know trillions of dollars.

Another ten to twenty billion for this crisis just doesn't seem to amount to much.

And of course you know we have a friendly Federal Reserve which is already is standing by and ready to buy more debt from the government if necessary if nobody else we'll take it.

That's reassuring.

Not at all it's got one last saying do you think this job this jobs report in particular.

Has any impact on what happens Tuesday do you think the job market overall does.

But -- and I think.

-- -- the job market is going to be a big consideration.

When you look at the numbers -- it's sort of interest and when you strip away the recent positive.

Series of numbers we've gotten there are some other numbers to be considered for instance.

When the administration came to power unemployment was seven point 8% at seven point 9% today.

When you look at how many jobs were added from the beginning of the administration to the -- The total net number of of job -- is only a 194000.

It'll be interesting to see whether the public.

Wants to blame the prior administration for the crisis.

Or whether they'll respond yes on responsibility this administration and I think fact is what things are gonna turn on interest staying up.

Most definitely Scott thank you so much for being here it was great to stay in policy affairs -- -- -- and I heard you and -- were.

Without so my residence for awhile and yeah thoughts are with him thank you so much for Scott.

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