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Former Labor Department commissioner Keith Hall with a picture of the current employment situation in the U.S.
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Now let's -- it over to our own rich -- saying he is and Washington with former Department of Labor can mr.
-- -- -- take a closer look now at that October jobs report good morning risks.
Good morning Diane from the man who used to help write this report keep all thanks so much for joining us today a 171000.
Jobs added last month.
How long would it take at a 171000.
Jobs a month to bring down the unemployment rate to a point.
Where we were back to normal full employment.
We'll share with a thank you realize is that it's sort of the base -- -- 130000.
Jobs this month like other months we get about 200000.
Additions to the population.
Can you need to have a certain amount of growth just keep up with the population so there's only 1000 minus 130.
We're still talking 99 -- ten years recovery -- this type of practice happened what are we going to need each month to get us back to full recovery.
Why I think good solid growth is at least a quarter million jobs a month.
And even at that rate we're talking about five or six years.
If you wanted to get back say in the next presidential term in four years he needs something like 325000.
Jobs a month so that that's much stronger than we're getting right now.
So here impressions of this report -- report solid report need to be better where are -- Well this I think this this makes it gives us a clear picture where the labor market is right now 171000.
Jobs.
Last four months we average about 173000.
Jobs a month.
That's a little bit above what you need to maintain -- unemployment rate so that's actually a little bit of progress it's strengthening.
How we needed to strengthen more -- to get into full recovery.
When you look at the labor participation rate 63 point 8% that's increased its a good sign but.
Put that in context 63 point 8% it's in the right direction but where are we right now with that -- When you remember that labor force participation just two months ago was at a thirty year low we've had a couple of months and an increased labor force participation which I think is -- perhaps an indication of growing confidence in the labor market but we -- still have a long way to go in and part of what that means is that unemployment rate at seven point 9%.
In the sense is artificially low because participation in solo.
What do you -- it going to take.
To get people back into employment what's holding hiring back I think -- it's as simple answer right now we don't have enough economic growth.
You know there's nothing there's nothing going on I think in the labor market is not a skills mismatch there's not a labor market flexibility issue.
Economic growth is too slow to support stronger job growth and we're getting right.
And when you look at the fiscal cliff how much is is that how much is that uncertainty from Washington well to me I think that's some of the biggest.
Problems that we have right now in getting stronger -- is this policy uncertainty in addition fiscal cleft.
We've got a presidential election going on.
The next president has got to I think signal hopefully we'll signal about what what he's gonna do with taxes and government spending and a number of things that will help.
You -- just having a plan in place is is worth it despite.
Some fears over there might be increased taxes -- might be a declining government spending just a plan in place would start to bring some private capital back into the market place.
Things and I just have a plan in place and I do though think that some signal that that there's not going to be any big jump in taxes and big jump in regulation few things like that would be helpful.
But -- I think just in the election -- getting a plan.
In place that this could be some cooperation on the economy.
Going forward would be really helpful average hourly earnings drop a penny is that a problem.
Yeah it's been a problem throughout the whole recession.
And I think what what that indicates is that we're not yet in recovery can keep having no the wages go down.
That means you still not a recovery million and they've gone down actually Quidel quite -- -- by by going to -- -- the growth has been going.
-- keep all the former.
Commissioner of the Bureau of Labor Statistics and I am gonna send back to you.
Down get -- -- rich -- that live from DC thanks rich I was.
