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ING Investment Management U.S. Chief Market Strategist Doug Cote on the outlook for the U.S. economy.
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Institute for supply management manufacturing number providing a lot of propellant for the market -- this is a a gauge on how manufacturing is doing but we know that manufacturing numbers from the summer.
Pretty much a disappointment and are perhaps at fault for the lower corporate earnings or at least some of them this quarter.
Don't -- today's US chief market strategist for ING investment management.
170 billion in assets over -- he's joining us exclusively of I don't even know where to start you know we've got the corporate earnings picture which to me was not bad but.
I got smacked down by somebody yesterday who said we need 72%.
To beat on their estimates of the S&P 500 companies and the -- weren't that great.
-- -- I'm looking for silver linings but you see this carrying on into Q4.
Yes the big number today with manufacturing.
Why manufacturing is so important it is a predictor of future corporate earnings.
I was very concerned but I saw three consecutive months during the summer a negative manufacturing.
And it looks like this third quarter with predicting the negative earnings.
We are at negative earning corporate earnings about minus one minus 2%.
But we just had a second consecutive positive manufacturing.
ISM manufacturing -- is the first day of a new month -- and this was.
Over expectations.
If we are expecting -- pull back this is what surprised some market.
This is what it set off the rally.
And on top of our good ADP reports it's a little bit of a conundrum though because you really like the consumer discretionary space and that means that.
You believe that the consumer has money to spend on things that they don't necessarily -- we have to needs like food and gasoline.
Yeah -- you saw all last week we retail sales hit -- all time record high.
We think some of that is from -- be aggressive quantitative easing from the Fed.
They're pumping eighty billion dollars a month into this market by -- buying mortgage backs.
And housing -- -- and which really that's the most important asset for the consumer is giving confidence back and that's why they're spending.
I think that spending is gonna come from the storm actually I had to run a sister into the gap and get my kids clothes.
I mean I'll tell you -- we don't we don't have power where eventually gonna have to spend to repair few couple things at me I just think that there might be that sort of theory that when things break down during a massive storm.
This giant rates the GDP a bit do you see that -- will it.
Pull money off the GDP well I think I this is isolated New York area certainly spending was brought forward.
Four but.
-- -- Again I'm looking at trends broad trends and I think because -- housing because and I think unemployment.
Is better than an in tomorrow's unemployment number is going to be in the big win me can change the nature of what elections -- -- we think it's going to be.
I think it it could be from bond act consensus that 120000.
And if it's meaningful only better and it favours to present -- at this meaningfully aggressive phases that governor Romney.
We now I'm sitting there looking at one of your picks that you like and it's technology -- -- technology doesn't work when you have no electricity but we need to also looked.
More broadly than just the storm this is affecting the northeast -- -- that the midwest there's California others Texas they have lots of energy what do you like technology.
-- technology and not just in the consumer not in the mobile phones but technology is one of those trends that affects every industry as it affects health care.
Effects energy energy we saw that new natural gas fracking -- bringing an enormous supplies to the market.
And if we could be energy independent because of -- technology applied to energy yet you don't like energy you say avoid an action.
Well who's the biggest beneficiary of this new supply is really the consumers.
It -- and the businesses have low cost gas.
Natural gas has plummeted in price so that actually hurts and and -- ironic way the producers of energy.
Benefits the consumers of energy.
That's why we have done cut today here to kind of helpful for brains go through the -- the Rube Goldberg scenario of why energy and technology are opposite ends of.
