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The Weekly Standard’s Kelly Jane Torrance on the validity of polling data less than a week before the election.
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Joining us now from the weekly standard is Kelly Jane Torrance -- is called move on to something given.
Possibly you know I I have to admit I have a little trouble understanding this obsession that pollsters and pundits have with the numbers.
Reminds me when I was a kid and I couldn't wait till December 25 to find out what I got for Christmas and I and -- just a little of the gets.
Nobody wants to wait a week everybody has to know what is going on now boss.
If you look at things overall.
I think in the Romney camp would have to admit that the amendments and they they go off following the debates -- -- I'm that they are actually in a dead heat I meet my my point is the momentum who stole -- house to warrant.
You're right I it's a dead heat and I think that nobody can deny that despite the fact that people on both sides Obama campaign people.
Romney campaign people want to claim it's not and that's what we see the Karl Rove piece you'll notice that all of the numbers that rove quoted in this piece -- national.
Numbers national polling numbers -- have been a big discrepancy between us national numbers and the state -- -- the national numbers it's a dead heat or Romney slightly ahead.
But the state state I think breakdowns are showing that Obama actually has the edge.
I don't know how you can account for that.
-- how -- you have one candidates in the lead nationally.
But behind in the key states like Ohio I'd I don't know how but can look out quite frankly and and get it.
You're right it can't work and that's why you basically people are picking and choosing are they gonna go to the national gonna go to the state numbers.
There's there's a lot of reasons why could be for one thing the national pollsters have been around for awhile.
You know they've got their methodology -- a lot of the state polling is being done my new organizations.
Using different methodologies will find out on November 6 who's -- But it looks to me.
I mean Karl -- does make a good point.
When you've got -- Ohio saying that we're gonna have damn Democrats -- same -- in 2008 when people we're so excited about their candidate.
And they're so much less excited about -- now.
There's no question there's a problem there I just and that that's -- every every poll uses a different methodology I I don't know how.
How you measure the intensity.
Of your intention to vote.
I don't know how you measure that and -- whether they all measuring going all but what I've seen.
Is there is a great intensity on the Republican side there really wanna get out their own vote that was not the same intensity on the Obama side.
I don't know how that translates to the actual poll next Tuesday.
But it's something I don't thing which the pollsters are actually measuring now.
Well it's interesting because and then the pollsters don't wanna tell you exactly how they're measuring how they decide who's a likely -- as opposed to just a registered voter.
But they do ask questions did you vote last time how likely but this time -- -- there on the way it's a trying to figure out how likely that person -- -- about.
But that's the thing it's it's you know you how do you you can't measure human nature and somebody might say -- I'm I'm really excited about -- and -- get out there in the Tuesday comes.
You don't now but I there's no question you're right that the Obama.
Excitement is nowhere near what it was in 2008 -- any poll that claims that democratic excitement is the same -- was four years ago it it is it's he can't take it seriously.
And that last -- have you seen any impact from the Libya situation and the president's refusal to take direct questions from the media on the Libya situation.
You know if that's have had any impact on voters apple.
You know what I wish more media outlets recovering at fox and Fox Business are our some of the only ones are our own weekly standard.
As -- but not and when you look at the approval ratings.
The majority over 50% I think -- but 51 in the last poll I saw disapproves.
Of his handling in Libya I think that's striking given that the New York Times went days this week without -- running a single story on it.
I think that that should be a bigger story to me it's a scandal.
And the fact that we're seeing it.
The fact that we're seeing people unhappy with Obama despite the lack of media coverage.
Really says something and I I think if we saw more coverage that would be reflected even more in the polls.
I'm almost out of time but I want you to call it if what's your opinion who wins.
You know what I I and that one of the people who has been pretty sure Obama's gonna eke out a victory I have to admit in the last -- Last few days I have started to doubt -- -- but.
I eighty money on I would say a very narrow Obama win but luckily I don't have to put money on the you don't all right -- -- thanks so much for joining us as always thanks -- our.
