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250 for the now well tomorrow we get the big October jobs report though it is the last big reading on the economy right before the election.
Joining us now us cal lost she's a forma investment -- something would say recovering investment -- and she joins us right now frequent guest on the program all right Carol.
What -- what five days from the election.
Would you give us your view a snapshot view of the economy how would do it.
-- I hate to be the bearer of bad news Stuart but I am a realistic gal and -- not doing great I don't care -- the jobs number comes up a little bit higher.
Or a little bit lower these are just.
Different shades of gray if you well.
And the economy is not doing well and we -- and a situation where we're facing sluggish growth at best and possibly if we don't fix the fiscal -- Our recession and I think the biggest signal that I'm seeing is dividend.
Okay now holding a little bit about that yet.
All I'm gonna get to that in a second but look we've got a whole slew of numbers out today show in the construction spending as well.
Confidence is very sharply -- We've got a 158000.
Jobs in the private sector according to ADP now those are signals that with picking off.
But there was not a great a fabulous robust recovery but we are picking -- These numbers would suggested that the president has a point are you gonna contest that.
Well let's just contest the numbers I -- ADP is saying a 158000.
Jobs but they just revised September's.
-- first cut -- in half yesterday they may have lifted it lightly but they originally reported a 162000.
And now it's down to a 1141000.
So I don't really trust the numbers -- I trust -- is what the companies are reporting.
On a GAAP basis so the fact that earnings were down the fact that they were guiding Q4 estimates lower and back to my point about dividends the amount of -- these companies are paying out -- very very alarming to -- because they're saying we have no better use for the -- we're not investing in jobs we're not investing in capital are not investing and working capital were returning it back to use the shareholder because we have nothing else to do with the money.
And so that is saying they don't have a catalyst for growth that they are not investing in growth what is going to grow the economy.
That's a very interesting perspective I mean from an investor's point of view.
I'm in smaller people love to see these big name companies shelling out more in dividends because you sit you hold the -- and -- you -- the -- dividend.
But you also -- -- -- -- negative vindicated because that would I think -- to do with the money.
At and it's short term focus vs long term focused on the short term it increases the yield but in the long term at these companies -- investing in the growth than the stock prices can't grow so it's it's -- is good for today but if we look ahead to tomorrow the company's paying out these dividends -- the bad thing I think it's a leading indicator.
You know it is should I don't I go on about this for you really should take a look at Microsoft.
That figure 29 dollars a share is yielding about 33 and a half percent dead steady fifty billion dollars in cash in the bank -- -- in the stock.
Are you telling me that I'm wrong Carol -- I'm not telling you that your Rod -- you're never -- but I'm saying at from a broader economy perspective that we don't have these companies investing in growth then the -- companies are gonna grow the economy is not gonna grow -- gonna come from the company's first not from the consumers that's a very -- I don't know -- I out out in a joke of it but that's a very very good point when companies raise dividends as they are right now.
That tells you something about their outlook for the future and what in what she's saying just as capital spending numbers by businesses which has been trending down you test -- should remember that.
Cal Roth thank you very much indeed come back to new get to New York.
We're in the dog partly that come back and -- OK can we wanna see on the set against him.
Thank you know.
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