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Behravesh: Sandy’s Impact on 4Q GDP Not Catastrophic

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    IHS Chief Economist Narimen Behravesh on the economic impact of the storm.

  • Duration 3:56
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Mission to the -- conversation now the chief economist.

And -- HS global insight that joins us up.

A lot of people are starting to talk their -- -- over the last that a -- to about the economic impact of what we've all been through.

In the in the northeast quite simply what do you think it'll bail.

Well this let's start up.

I saying this this is a unique storm many of them are unique but this a particularly unique one.

Because of the impact that it's had on New York City and the fact that -- disrupted businesses there.

And we'll continue to destructive for some time given the subway system downtown as -- essentially paralyzed and will be for some days so.

You've got a combination of business disruptions.

And the fact that some of the refineries have been affected as well on the East Coast.

They got the gasoline effect on maps -- prices up on gasoline.

And the destruction of business would put all that together we say well I could probably -- lower fourth quarter growth.

As much as half a percentage point more -- us so it will have an impact it's not going to be horrible but it will be there.

That is not going to be.

Positive and what I mean by that is that you sometimes see these theories after a natural disaster that say art -- rebuilding.

He did the construction industry we'll get a boost -- that kind of thing Elizabeth McDonald from fox.

From Fox Business did some reporting on this already.

And -- basically one of the things she said is hey it's not like -- If you -- using our money to pay for tax money to pay for its awkward getting richer as a nation because.

You know that -- other building if you're taking government money and giving it to a contractor whatever the case may be able what's your take on that because that's come up here.

Well it will have an effect a positive effect on GDP growth.

But not right away -- probably be first second quarter you'll start to see a little bit of that.

But you're right I mean that's the question is -- that money coming from is that insurance companies is that you know out of pocket as a taxpayer money we don't we don't quite have a sense of it right now.

But it just pick up from an accounting perspective it'll it'll bump up GDP growth a little bit attempted to in -- subsequent a couple of quarter.

Wonder how much of a slowdown in the near term were.

We're really to see from people this is tough to tell I mean you you come to.

A place like midtown Manhattan where we're broadcasting from minutes like any other day but then you could just a few blocks literally -- few blocks south once against dark you you could see a line.

People say line in the sand it's a -- in the city where a tale of two different cities and in New York right now if you run one of the bridges -- see lights on one side.

Darkness on the other side so appeared this this commerce you know in midtown this people.

Doing business the restaurants are open to some people that have -- -- -- I'm doing this ourselves today can mess up everybody else.

We're here spending money you know do things.

Maybe we hadn't missed any more time that we ordinarily would still -- -- how does that balance itself out do you think in terms of people having to spend more money.

Because can stay at -- -- you know it's like an unplanned vacation what.

-- what is yeah.

Yeah I think it will have an effect in the sense about balancing -- you're saying it's not all going to be negative.

We certainly some businesses in the city north of that demarcation line will benefit.

People walk will walk -- restaurant you know and the lights on if you will away from a -- sums up it's not all going to be bad and -- wasn't going up.

One other thing I don't know how much expertise you'll have on it but it we just cannot.

And -- lost in this of how much devastation has been done to the shoreline in the state of New Jersey which were showing now those are pictures of Atlantic City.

And the southern.

On the -- -- part of Long Island certainly similar pictures have been seen over the last a few days.

Rebuilding that from an economic perspective -- mean how much how long does that take.

Well certainly the worst of it will be cleaned up by next summer one would expect right.

You'll still to be able to see.

The effects of the hurricane even next -- -- you -- devastated areas whether -- New Orleans -- -- the Gulf -- the whatever you can see the facts but it's it is clean up -- -- you can go back -- you can vacation -- out -- I suspect business will come back -- -- you'll still be able to see beyond the devastation -- -- such a large population center all of those areas that -- -- -- and thank you -- -- -- thanks for coming out today.

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