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So will her K sandy also strike at a gas -- about 7% of total US refining capacity is in the storm's path.
Tom -- chief oil analyst at opus and Tom here in southern New Jersey before asking about gas prices what's it like -- getting pounded with rain.
Actually we just saw certainly content like cattle will be you have sort of blown and -- -- -- -- -- -- -- Then I'd be really -- usual -- -- asking about gas prices you heard -- before you oil trading down on the idea that if refineries are shut down.
That's less demand for oil what gasoline because it can cut both ways I mean it -- -- and the supply is going down because those refineries are close but also there's not a lot of people out there driving.
Well I think did to demand destruction is without question is much more -- threat then there's the damage to supply -- -- actually just seem to refinery shut down completely and they're both in the New York Harbor area.
The -- star refinery you -- makes asphalt that's not a big consideration.
And the refineries doesn't Delaware River are in kind of a cold boat which is like do they getting your water ready -- -- you can put it on earlier or late depending on what the in laws -- I'm looking at numbers here -- I would say you know in the northeast back of the envelope we use about one to one and a half million barrels a date gasoline each day.
We're certainly -- lose millions of barrels of gasoline demand this week and my guess is that.
We'll see retail prices perhaps wobble or stay about -- for a few days and then they won't presume.
A steady downward trend through November.
Somewhat about the possibility with the storm surge to their talking about now that so we can have some real damage done to these refineries especially of that salt water gets over -- breaches -- defenses if you like.
Com what kind of impact of that have on refining capacity.
Well that's -- worst case scenario and I think that's the worst case scenario through the Phillips 66 for monetary and they weigh in New Jersey that what isn't necessarily and that direct path of the storm but the storm surge number seat -- suggest that that it happened so.
That's the greatest risk out there are although.
If you look at probabilities it's probably not a high probability but it's a possibility -- today's gasoline increases on the nymex.
Reflect to a certain extent a worst case scenario.
Yeah so I mean you jumped ahead to my next question is I was asked as gonna ask you based on trading today would you think is priced in already and where do we go from here.
I think -- price didn't a few days or perhaps even a week or so look shut down this at port reading the has facility and the big worry refinery that Phillips -- and we're pricing in that the Philadelphia or Delaware River plants will continue to -- after the storm passes that.
Obviously we get some severe damage it to problem but remember one thing Melissa almost every refinery that -- the United States.
-- -- considerable demand it is a rare bird that discourage supply.
And so how would you think that that demand stays off want an immediate depends on the length of the storm and a horse but.
If this comes through at -- you know even though looks bad right now that doesn't hang around as long as we might -- The medical meaning prices go up because -- I have destroys much demand.
The EU might -- gasoline prices in the north east -- a little bit higher first few days to think about it like batteries and water.
You probably have -- batteries and water at home to survive for the next few years -- a great extent.
People would build up on their gasoline and so well this is the considerable demand destruction of that.
That's probably -- all next week's numbers -- some demand.
Estimates that will look like the middle of the winter I think -- -- All right -- close at thanks so much we appreciate your time.
Generally that's good stuff tell you want to join -- to that's right yes and we wanna tell you right now we're hearing from the NASDAQ as well.
But they are going to close trading tomorrow along with the New York Stock Exchange we told you.
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