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The presidential race tonight is taking me away from my usual black board tonight.
And I'm turning to something just a little more high eight -- And I and I got to tell -- I'm having a little separation anxiety I gave my blackboard -- hard tonight just so there would be no hard feelings and sort a year ago but or with the F the fancy stuff the national polls have shown -- close race throughout this election season.
Generally within the margin of error so we want to bring you up to date.
On where the candidates stand with twelve days to go before Election Day and we're going to bring to you whatever developments -- evening.
-- that occur on the electoral map.
Our and in whatever ships there may be.
In voter sentiment.
Now remember there are 538.
Total electoral votes and to win the White House as we all know it's been drummed into our heads.
The winner needs 270.
Of those votes according to real clear politics the Romney camp can now safely count.
Electoral votes the president can safely count on 200 -- and walk.
Now the the fact of the matter is.
They've given Romney to swing state.
North Carolina and let me do that right now -- true North Carolina.
At that gives him his well more than five point lead.
In their polling average there and let's take a look at the Romney strategy.
With this now euros six the -- one.
True candidates electoral votes the Romney strategy is known -- -- as three to want.
The three means he needs to take back three traditionally Republican states that voted for President Obama.
Those states are North Carolina.
Which he has a significant lead and -- Virginia and Indiana so what's let's give.
But let's let's give.
Romney his thirteen electoral votes in Virginia.
We've already given him Indiana.
It's already likely.
For Romney incidentally a fox poll out today shows governor Romney up two points in Virginia.
-- to show you how this race is moving that's a sharp reversal from what had been a seven point deficit last month.
-- next the governor needs to win the two traditional.
Battleground states of Ohio and Florida so we're gonna give -- Florida we're gonna give him Ohio.
And that gets the governor up to 266.
Electoral votes for.
-- votes is all he needs in he's just one other state to get to 27.
That could be -- -- -- it could be Colorado it could be Iowa New Hampshire Michigan Pennsylvania or Wisconsin.
-- -- -- -- -- Now let's let's take a look at the Obama strategy which is really very simple.
Let's assume that governor Romney.
Wins those three southern battlegrounds for the governor's up in the polls that is -- -- the North Carolina.
And Virginia so let's give the president the two typically democratic strongholds.
And and Michigan.
So we'll give the president that brings him -- -- here.
To 66 to seventy and I think that Gunter -- this -- Pennsylvania.
And the president while it's gonna get New Hampshire's wells are gonna give him New Hampshire another four.
Electoral votes -- -- a small leave their right now I'm just under 1% it's a small lead.
And the latest Rasmussen and ARG polls are giving governor Romney a two point lead there but we're giving it to.
President Obama for a very good historical -- of a Republican has a one -- since 2000.
And -- term Wisconsin blue as well.
Despite Paul Ryan in the favorites on status he holds stay at a Wisconsin hasn't while they voted Democrat every year since 1984.
And according to real clear politics the president is up in Wisconsin right now.
By three points on the latest poll it.
-- as you can see that gives the president 251.
Votes to governor Romney's 266.
So the president needs to win the state of Ohio.
And giving him Ohio well.
It's complicated because no Republican has ever been elected president without taking Ohio and -- that.
The president as you see jumps to 269.
Now to 48.
Meaning he just needs the president one more swing -- put him over the top that would be Nevada.
Romney has a -- lead in Colorado right now but the president is up to in Iowa.
And three points in Nevada with the vaunted do read machine at work in Nevada.
And that's why the president has been in Cleveland today.
And it's why governor Romney has been roaring through 30 hi -- -- today campaigning there so far.
The real clear politics average has the president up two points in Ohio.
But don't let that fool you.
The president had a similar advantage in Virginia two and a half weeks ago which has sense --
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