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4Q Earnings Showing Cracks in Apple’s Story?

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  • Description

    JMP Securities’ Alex Gauna breaks down Apple’s fourth-quarter earnings results.

  • Duration 6:41
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This transcript is automatically generated

Been expecting David well it it is although we have an analyst who says it needed to be -- 28 million iphones.

Also were he has some other things to say about -- Alex down is with JMP securities.

And -- and other some apple analysts who were little too willing to give apple -- a past but not our next guest Alex Alex what do you think of these numbers you -- said.

That -- phone sales needed to top 28 billion they came in at 26 point nine.

I think whisper number was 28 million not too long ago.

As you've seen with the correction in the stock -- think some of those expectations have come down somewhat so it is a good number.

Especially -- -- you just pointed out what Amazon has printed so it is a tough environment that is a good phone number.

What is disappointing is the iPad number that's even weaker than I think what people had deduced.

After the announcement that they it reached a hundred million cumulatively.

At the iPad mania launch so there's some puts and takes on this quarter clearly it is an EPS -- that is also -- characteristic for the stock it's now the third one.

In a year and a half and since the passing of Steve Jobs so there are some cracks in the story forming I think yes.

Okay but let me get to this number and you mentioned the -- fourteen million were sold that is a gain of about 26%.

Year for year.

The -- and we haven't seen a break out yet on on whether it was iPhone -- -- four -- and how they're doing but.

26 point nine million iphones and Mac -- four point nine million up 1% year over year that -- does that surprise you does that annoy you.

The MacBook numbers a good one and that is a very strong product refresh that they've just put in front of investors and -- even refresh the MacBook Pro at thirteen -- now.

So that's a good number especially given that these are premium units selling in a tough macroeconomic environment it shows.

That by pushing the envelope on performance apple is being reward I'm on the Mac side.

So so the stock is halted right now we just want to let people know that but would you buy -- there if you believe that with the brand new refreshes of some of these products that aren't taken into account for this earnings report.

That if there's a sell off right now that it's time to buy.

So I think that if there -- a big sell off based on some of the difficulties that the competition are having you've had Microsoft here on the program.

They're a little bit vulnerable right now I think you would buy a sell off if it was a deep one.

If it's not a deep selloff right here on fundamentally neutral on the stock I think we're gonna learn more next week when Google has its next generation products unveiled.

So little bit more state to stay tuned for I think Khaled heading into the holiday season Alex what's their biggest concern now is it is it is at the lack of sales or is it the competition is -- android.

Odds that the global slowdown what's their biggest concern right now.

So I think the first and most important concern is that closing gap between apple products and the competitive products.

And especially some of those high performing competing products that have subsidize business models.

And our -- selling at lower growth Smart well in this sense for heavy for -- Alex what is it.

You know we all know that Steve Jobs is against the many iPad is that why they when -- against the wishes of the late leader of apple in order to come out what is because.

They are worried about the competition.

You're making a great point this is one area where they're not a leader there a follower and they were not too long ago bashing the seven inch form factors so yes.

Here is something that I think that they've had to do because of the competitive landscape they're being forced into a category that they'd probably rather not be in.

Probably rather be in a larger form factor higher gross margin dollar category.

The other issue that's also a concern is in a tough macroeconomic environment have they century saturated -- opportunity at the premium device level.

Hence then you need to go into an -- -- type of product to get to that next level of sales.

What do you make of this international sales accounted for 660%.

From the -- let from the year ago quarter so that they've done extraordinarily well here internationally how much of that would you guess is China when they unveiled of course the.

So China is gonna be one of those markets that's still relatively untapped you had.

Ballmer and talking about the opportunity for Microsoft the same is true for apple.

That's an interesting battle ground for both companies last quarter Asia was down pretty sharply.

So it's gonna need to come back here in the December quarter little bit in the march quarter because -- leader timetable for the Chinese Lunar New Year.

But China is one of the key drivers for this story and comes back to that are they saturating.

The price points that China can support that's -- question remains to be -- Alex let's.

Back a little a look at all the overall -- -- saute apple stumble little with the maps deal.

And then with with serious as well is it is it possible that they're kind of losing that Steve Jobs edge that they had always -- ahead of the companies you mentioned that they're following on tablets now on the many tablets.

Have they is it fair to say that they've lost their jobs that.

So there are still.

Fielding marvels of engineering their devices are wonderful there's no doubt about that.

But yes it is somewhat uncharacteristic to see some of these stumbles he mentioned Siri.

You mentioned maps.

There -- some quality issues with some of the builds on the new iPhone 5 there's been talk of supply constraints on these devices as well.

So it is not -- -- in what has become the norm for apple in recent murder.

Remember to let's remember this is important because -- -- a headline here that says US stock index futures are now falling they are now following up.

On the apple results which is is pretty significant now apple of course is part of so many indices because they are so huge now that a lot of sick for example -- that's -- The Dow Jones industrials -- a lot of funds have to own apple now the futures are actually moving on this the futures are falling.

Following Apple's results again the stock is still halted if you could guess what happens when it starts trading again what do you think.

I would think it would be down I think only modestly because it's not a big misses the really good top one number it was also a strong -- phone number and I think that's encouraging because we still have the holidays ahead of us.

And there has been quite a bit of talk about supply constraints those -- supply constraints come off.

We could still have a very Merry Christmas for apple.

But I think that yes it is a little bit disappointing and I think that yes the company is not executing as strongly as it had in the past.

Alex down now what a terrific analysis of what's going on there with -- -- -- fair we really appreciate you come -- and -- that analysis of -- again the stock is still halted but some of its suppliers is Liz was saying are trading down after hours so.

Doesn't look good but we will keep you -- it keep you.

In touch was.

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