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Barrack Yard Advisors CIO Martin Leclerc on the potential impact of the Presidential election on the markets and investors’ strategies.
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Around the corner how will the markets react to the candidate that gets elected according to Marty LeClair Barack yard advisors cheap -- I guess you.
You can tell it's -- my mind at the moment -- commit up barricades yard advisors chief investment officer and portfolio manager it doesn't matter Marty really really doesn't matter to -- mark.
-- well I don't think so the a lot of what's happening is anticipating.
The election and what won't really the bigger story is what's happening in the and in the real economy and what's happening in the real economy.
Long term is the fact the US is is going to achieve energy independence next -- here's a cell and that doesn't matter who gets elected.
You say that those things are givens and because of that -- the markets will do what they're going to do you know.
We look at the market if you showed three year chart for your chart it it with a few bumps and bruises it looks pretty darn healthy but we know that there is -- -- sort of -- -- of -- gap between the economy and what the markets are doing.
So what would then happen if you have a change in leadership in the markets -- change -- they don't like uncertainty certainly well who does but you know what do you think really happens if we.
Take a look person area which might be let's just say that Mitt Romney gets the presidency.
-- I think -- the issue is -- Hogan deal fiscal cliff which is if nothing's done then.
The economies in contract by 4% next year -- do think the market tax on that would -- short things or at least hedge.
I would had Taiwan short things because it seems like this market is on the sugar -- a life of its own especially because of the fat and all of the propping up -- on absolute and that doesn't go away at least for the short term I know -- -- in fact it's it's a given I think it's going to be there for quite -- So the question for investors -- -- markets up over 30% the past year if you recall last October look like the world was coming to an end.
There was lots of pessimism right now it seems like the world looks pretty good investors -- complacent they're confident.
So for us historically when that has been the case then that's when -- wary.
That downgrade of of the United States' AAA rating back in August a year to remember that I was.
Nothing -- at what level will you make your move you know back in August this past -- -- went to about 20% cash from what.
From the fairly fully invested position okay what did you see there that made you move there and what would make you put some of that money back to work.
Well it goes back to the whole thing about -- sometimes you know most people assume that the financial markets in the real economy are connected.
And sometimes that's the case like in the bit late 1990s the stock market was strong the economy are strong now the economy is fairly tepid at best.
But the markets have been very very strong so we decided are we going to you know we have a choice of either participating in the sugar rally.
War.
You know take some profits and wait for a better entry point because our knitting as we try to buy great companies at good prices.
And stocks have become expensive when you see that entry point -- would -- it would be a bit of a step down from where we are right now so things get a bit more cheap.
What are the three things say that -- really look for when you're deciding to commit money to a certain stock.
What are three things is first of all we think through whether that company has a real -- and if it's -- a non American company.
Not only does that company have have an edge for the country should have -- -- so for example.
Belgium is famous first chocolate beer and place so that will be an example of a country -- The second thing we look at is what but the company doesn't this cash flow they're only certain.
Few things that companies can do with a cash flow and then the third thing is.
Do you like this company so well and you understand it well enough -- comfortable with it.
That if the market shut down for a year you be happy -- that you stick with something for a little bit of a long term and through the bumps in.
-- that they endure.
Marty has some names -- a couple of them are at other countries and he's still feel strong about the country in the names themselves.
And she is actually going to explain exactly what it is and if you were to use the three strategies that he just gave us.
Where would you put that money he's got the names three global companies great -- he says for.
