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Do Elections Matter to the Market?

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    John Taft, RBC Wealth Management CEO, on if this year’s election will really impact the market.

  • Duration 4:32
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And I realized I work with the election just under three weeks away -- -- are wondering how it will impact the market -- next guest.

Says it won't really have any impact he says what we really need to move for us stocks higher.

Is a credible long term plan for debt relief that would be nice wouldn't it John -- CEO Bob BC wealth management.

US and -- there's also is here and he's also the great grandson by the way the president.

Very cool -- -- -- cool I'll Republican nine point a Republican I was at today's -- it was think seemed to me that Republican Mitt Romney will be.

More favored by the markets to rule capitalist guy Fremont kids less corporate perhaps regulation.

You say it doesn't make any difference law.

First -- -- I agree with everything you say he would obviously be the preferred candidate for many businessman and market participants -- In in the grand scheme of things both President Obama and Mitt -- are relative centrists they're intelligent they're capable experienced.

And they have the best long term interest of the country at heart I believe.

So whether Obama or Romney is president.

They are probably going to have to work with a congress that shares power with the other party doesn't matter which -- in the office so the question is going to be.

When we have to address come up with a policy response to the fiscal cliff.

And when we have to come up with a policy response to the debt ceiling which -- gonna hit again.

In early months of the year what's that going to look like is the president going to be able to work with congress to come up with a compromise.

If the answer is no the market is -- to respond very negatively to that if the answer is yes.

That said publicly I think we could be looking -- decade long term bull market in US equities if there is a credible plan.

But you need congressmen and the president whoever it is to get there.

And it what is it these days the united past we always used to say.

Let them butt heads for the next four years get nothing done it's better for the markets Korea -- -- -- the market actually wants Obama at 64 point 7% vs Romney at 35.

What are they want had a congressman Walt well two things actually there's an interest in fact we actually went back at RBC and looked at previous elections.

Investors do best when an incumbent president is re elected.

When that incumbent is a Democrat and when that re elected incumbent Democrat has to share party.

With Republicans in congress in the first year after that happens the market is up double digits now that's a plausible scenario with the -- might -- have great numbers well I 6530 -- historically the market has responded well to that -- -- -- -- in the future who knows.

But the issue is this again and this is what's so frustrating to the businessman is that everybody knows what the problem is you have a systemic.

In the end a structural deficit we are spending too much money.

Relative to the level of taxes that we're collecting right and you can't fix the problem.

Either by raising taxes solely.

Or by cutting spending solely so you have to compromise.

With some balance the other thing everybody knows.

Is -- you can't do either of those things tomorrow the economy is too fragile so you have to -- the solution in over time.

There are several credible plans out there the one you hear that talked about most is Simpson Bowles -- Simpson which the president ignored.

Which the president ignored and I'm telling you if either new president.

Science.

-- since symbols like bill passed by congress look out were on the mend again.

Interest thing.

You know very quickly -- -- with regard to investors -- lot of cash and you know bombs -- cash itself but just don't wanna jump in.

There's a bit of lack of faith in the financial system wouldn't you say -- at some glitches they don't trust the banks don't trust the regulators that is the single biggest problem facing the market right now I'm by the way.

The lack of policy response in Washington contributes to that but yes since the financial crisis.

The flash flash crash yeah watched ideals -- manipulation investors are sitting here saying.

Should I trust my hard earned savings.

To put into the marketplace we'll guess what and lessening toll do we will not have the patient long term capital we need to get the country in the economy moving again.

Mean look at today we got an eight -- earnings have got released without even.

The company proving just.

Adds to the pair of confusion and chaos I think our -- have thank -- -- -- -- -- great stuff thank you thank.

Almost fat fingers.

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