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Federated Investors senior vice president Phil Orlando weighs in on jobs and Obama's re-election chances.
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Thank you very much more on this morning's jobless numbers weekly claims for first time unemployment benefits -- -- 46000.
To 388000.
Economists were looking for a number of just 360.
The Labor Department telling our Peter Bartz in Washington the spike was due to the filings of one state much like last week we saw that drop off blamed on -- state presumably.
California.
What to make of this and the election bill Orlando is here chief market strategist for Federated Investors has thirty and fifty billion dollars under management.
Tell me about tell us rather -- is here -- thank you -- maybe maybe not wasn't last time commitment and that's competitive.
They didn't body could -- -- -- NASA then stop.
About the unemployment rate and how unlikely it would be for an incumbent president to get elected -- with unemployment at seven point 8%.
Well we've seen studies that go back to the post war -- in late 1940s that no president has won reelection with the rate of unemployment above seven point 3%.
So during that period there were three failures Gerry Ford.
Jimmy Carter and and bush number one the rate of unemployment was above that.
Fact the only president who's ever been reelected in the post -- error.
With the rate of unemployment above 6% was was Reagan.
And that number was I believe 72.
-- with the number at 78 right now.
Only one jobs report left coming up in a couple weeks so that's a tall order.
How about the trends obviously some of these numbers of jobs reelection how about the trend being the friend of the president so to speak coming down lot of people made a big deal that it was under 8% -- you know last month and if that doesn't jump up again next month is the trend something that could you what.
Trying to certainly moving in the right direction but when you take a step back and look at the improvement from a 10% rate of unemployment to seven point eight over the last three years that the primary driver of that decline has largely been a decline in what's known as labor force participation -- -- -- about a 31 year cycle low right now and in plain English what that means is that a lot of people just given up looking for work discouraged if you will.
And and that his reduced the denominator in the -- the government calculates the rate of unemployment.
How does -- -- of the coming tax increases -- in the year and be spending cuts the fiscal cliff says they.
How does that play out end of the election because we're so close to it.
It hasn't really showed up in the markets yet so.
Do people look it directly applied nervousness about that to how they vote or would -- have to have some sort of like material impact on say the stock market.
I -- tell -- I didn't travel around the country talking investor groups all the time in and I asked for a show of hands in terms of who who's heard about the fiscal cliff in the automatic sequester and stuff like that -- only a couple hands go up.
Interest and retail investors average voters if you will are really focused on this no we York because this is what we do for eleven.
And affect our GDP expectations for the first quarter of next year or.
You know around 1% because we're concerned about the potential chilling effect on on businesses and consumers.
Based upon the potential impact of the fiscal -- but our base -- is that we think congress name illustration.
Whoever the president is is gonna.
Is valuable work through that I can't help but -- had data should talk politics of Juan Williams you're the second but that this conversation of the trips are having right now would be a beneficial one.
For Mitt Romney to continue happening after the debate.
You know a lot of it this snap polls showed -- Obama won but in some of those same polls like CNN poll.
Romney scored very high on the economy the next money's gonna go talk foreign policy and not the domestic economy which may -- -- -- I don't know well.
I looked it I was watching that debate on TV the other night I thought the president did an excellent job and becoming much more engaged this time that he was the last time but -- the bar was fairly low there.
But from a contents standpoint I thought governor Romney -- -- good job of explaining.
Things about the economy right -- -- the president's explanations were were little light so now as you said that the shift Monday.
He's gonna be foreign policy I think there are a number of key issues that that are -- -- be -- the focal point to that debate the other well which we'll talk about failed to deceive -- way thank you very much thank you.
