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United Advisors Chief Market Strategist Scott Martin, former Treasury Assistant Secretary Phillip Swagel and Meister, Selig & Fein Partner Stephen...
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-- -- -- this actually -- -- I'm pretty excited the housing market could be building your recovery father realized Warner get this.
The house housing starts have jumped 15% in September from one month earlier that's impressive the highest level in four years -- president.
America is hiring up to 4000 more employees than expected.
All they handle high mortgage -- that was buried in their conference call -- sort of an interesting -- To throw on the -- here so is what we've been waiting for is this what we've been waiting for not we've gotten all star panel to break it all down -- -- lag well -- former assistant secretary.
For economic policy at the Treasury Department we've Scott -- live and in person chief market strategist.
With united advisors and Stephen Meister real estate attorney and partner with -- selling and fine thanks to all of you for joining us.
Filled -- -- start with you since you're not sitting here with us here at a little bit of a disadvantage.
What do you mean and this this and it it's I think this could be.
At -- getting too excited for not plan.
No no I share your excitement and is finally right we we've had a housing collapse a bubble collapsed.
We're finally seeing construction -- today's data single family homes are up multifamily apartment buildings way way up.
Housing prices have stabilized and then you have to be an announcement that you said that they expect the mortgage business to be there so it looks like finally we're turning -- corner.
What do you think I mean are you seeing you -- you're the guy is out there in the trenches -- -- the deals.
What do you think is -- hello.
Well I think I think we are on the cusp of a real recovery but I think.
I'm not that bullish for two reasons one I think it's going to be very muted.
You still have a very good job market -- still have people loaded down Newton new households with student loans.
And you're probably gonna will eventually -- -- an interest rate increase not right now that.
-- will not in my lifetime.
But we -- what you didn't mean -- -- mean does it mean that we should never get our hopes up their houses are going T you know -- double in value over four years or is it you might 12 per cent.
I think you're gonna see a very muted price increases because of the overhead and -- -- -- number.
What I want to 3% they have here yeah.
And I think an important thing can take note here is what we -- in the -- Growth rate in this country wanting change percent.
All of new construction is -- could that most mean you know ten or twenty basis points point one point two at most it would.
Know why I don't go -- -- no iPhone and -- -- -- -- is doing half a percent GDP housing is that even close blitzer Stephen exit point to wage growth.
Absolutely terrible flat to down year over year when adjusted for inflation.
That's gonna sell -- kids.
And still -- -- -- that I mean they're they're a little more pessimistic than you are.
Yeah it.
You look I'm realistic there's some secular forces.
That that may be a little bit more optimistic -- so yes the slow wage growth slow job growth.
We've got a couple million people living in their parents' basement doubling you know -- apartments.
There's a big wave of future homeowners that gives me some optimism that you -- balance out the pessimism -- -- the parents passed away and -- another another.
And he's not big into this data.
A disproportionate percentage of multifamily product condominium right and that's -- -- and that's important because that contributes less to GDP.
Stephen here at this is my fear you know you -- a house and it's could be worth less than what you paid for this has happened before you know the past several years.
It's happened to everybody and know -- bought -- -- -- believe that fear of god can you -- and at least say.
I met Lisa gonna lose money on -- -- clean air.
I think with some people the fear is gone but I don't think it's gone across the board.
I think some people aren't Iowa disillusioned with asset class he's been true.
I -- days that housing is an investment it's an asset you know -- -- ask a question really what's muted we're going to create it's not an investment don't.
Asset in the sense that most of something you hold but you can't check on it every year and say oh my goodness is it up another 10%.
It's housing it's housing right you can count yourself in a rented apartment.
And you can were rented house -- you can count yourself and -- -- it's what what what what's -- saying is you're not looking to.
Make money by by buying a house -- -- -- -- committee thank you might treat other.
Yeah he's is that the bottom line over time that it's no longer an investment it's not invested great you know people my parents generation of my house living at their whole lives and know that when it was time to retire they -- sell it.
And there the whole nest -- they're essentially their 41 K the money would come out they can use that to retire is that ever gonna happen again.
Yeah -- -- that uncertainty is going to be with us for a long time and we've we've seen house prices go down by a lot.
Eventually I think -- be more comfortable yet again thinking that housing prices will rise.
-- not gonna catch a falling dagger following -- but he is going to take a long time all right gentlemen your -- fantastic.
