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University of Colorado professor Kenneth Bickers breaks down how his computer model predicts the next president.
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Will Mitt Romney win in November 1 election model says -- yes.
And it's -- right for the past three decades my next guest has been using a sophisticated computer model since 1980.
To correctly predict.
The outcomes of presidential elections here to explain his method in his madness.
University of Colorado professor Kenneth -- professor thanks for coming on I want to show first of all to our viewers what is your forecasting with your computer model.
I have been -- since 1980s say that Mitt Romney will get 330.
Electoral College votes -- that the president will get only 200 Nate what is -- about your model that leads you to these conclusions.
-- what we do as we model the Electoral College rather than try to figure out what the national vote percentage will be.
We model all fifty states plus the District of Columbia and we use data going back to 1980.
To do that and what drives the model in addition to the prior vote in each state.
Is economic conditions that economic fundamentals.
Of the nation has it's viewed in each individual state.
And on the basis of that with unemployment where it is.
-- and where real income on a per capita basis where that has been which is not been growing over the last now.
Four years on the basis of those factors.
It it it looks.
Up pretty clear that the governor is is running at a good time to be a challenger and that he'll win this election.
Now professor I'm sure you're aware that the unemployment rate for September went down to seven point 8%.
It an 8% or higher for I believe 43 months in a row of -- really painful.
For the American public but we've had a couple of good data points here do you think -- time we get to the election in November.
That Americans will feel differently about their prospects.
Well it's a possibility but I think it's an unlikely possibility one of the main drivers in that unemployment rate going down.
Was people abandoning the workforce so when we model the economy we're not just looking at unemployment we're certainly doing that.
But we're also looking at income that households half so we're measuring.
Income on a per capita basis with the -- the effects of inflation -- what's the purchasing power.
So unemployment went down partly because people were abandoning the workforce when they -- the workforce they have less income to spend.
So while unemployment going down helps the president somewhat.
The fact that income is going down to hurts the president.
And that's part of why -- these things tend offset.
And it continues to be an electoral cycle where it's better to be the challenger than the income.
All right -- I want to show folks a map of a just what your forecast looks like the people get a sense of it.
Take a look at that and and this map this is projections for for Romney winning on Election Day according to a computer model that are -- is put together.
Professor -- You know we talked about how.
Could you surprised you haven't been surprised -- past you have this amazing track record is there anything that could happen in the next few weeks that could turn it around.
Well there's always a possibility of some sort of a shock like an attack from.
If if Israel or due to attack a -- -- for example we we can't model that that's that's outside the model.
It's something calamitous for one candidate or the other in the debates that are upcoming.
Sure those kinds of things could have an effect.
But by and large people of made up their mind about the economy we know that from lots and lots of different sources.
And what they're trying to figure out now is are they ready to go with the challenger.
And that certainly part of what we saw happening in the debate in Denver couple weeks ago which is people are saying.
Yeah I I don't mind looking at the challenger and and if I'm undecided -- maybe that's who I'll go with that's what our model is showing.
While well professor -- really compelling information thanks for coming on tonight gonna come back sometime.
It's just interesting analysis appreciate your time today thank you.
