You're watching...
Active Bear ETF Co-Manager Brad Lamensdorf and Leader Capital CEO John Lekas on the outlook for the markets and how the election could affect investor...
Also in this playlist...
Auto-advance: ON
Auto-advance
This transcript is automatically generated
That's why I must get to a street might put a mop for the bands we have Bradley and install acted fast food the F co -- -- for the bulls we have John Markus leader.
Capital CE oh all right let's begin with Brad Brad -- fund.
Is a short only ETF despite the fact we've seen the markets to the F and S&P up 13% so far this year so why why are you shorting the market.
There are plenty of company.
In the S&P 15100 which is our universe that we pick from.
That are not doing very well at all and actually their inventories are rising faster than some of their growth rates are analysts are giving them free passes right now.
But margins will be coming down next year as this over excess inventory.
Moves through their balance sheets.
Well this is kind of fun because we rarely -- we have Bulls and Bears what we really have to people on on pretty opposite ends of the spectrum so.
We get to John like -- and he says that we are going to have.
The biggest bull market of our life time.
So complete opposite feeling -- I guess -- number one what would get us there and how high will just for all intents and purposes the S&P -- Look there's a couple things are gonna get us there.
And -- a political back to 1982 Reagan was president 82 to 2000 was the last really really major bull market we have the S&P 500.
Went from 15100.
-- you went up almost down 15100%.
And so I think that were little word in that was the last time by the way unemployment was above 8% we'll look at it is similar card -- -- here.
Number two I think -- dead bodes well for the bulls Romney's gonna win by a landslide.
No question about it market's telling you that.
And I think that's gonna -- a lot of these uncertain in regulations.
It's also the last you know two and a half years we've corporate America's refinanced about little over two trillion dollars.
Come for a savings of about 3% a year that that's phenomenal.
The -- close to 300 billion dollars in earnings as we go forward.
And I think closer and the -- -- which has -- really materialize it is that we are going to be in a low dollar policy.
In order pay back our debt now low dollar policy is very very bullish for the market.
Let me just quickly and that didn't follow up on that though what you altitude to -- -- you believe Romney will win in a landslide even though there there seems to be that sort of touch and go between the two ends.
In the past six or seven sessions where Romney went ahead in the polls the market was down for every one of those sessions.
Yeah but but but I believe that would but that what's gonna sell oil with skin what Romney is doing Romney's coming with facts and figures.
The Obama administration have been all over themselves -- all over themselves.
And all the coming with is it is concepts but but nothing concrete so you know I've I -- I believe the market is telling -- that I'm ground on a limb here.
And and -- Romney is gonna in my landslide.
-- well that's clearly your view but Brad you know we've had many analysts in the last month descended that it doesn't and Obama.
Reelection -- being priced into the market already.
There's many points to pick up on here but how would you respond to those comments -- We're not political.
Analyst so we're not here to talk about who's gonna win the election.
But I do know a lot about stock markets and trends our friends over Ned Davis -- search.
Give out a lot of good information that we use in our analysis.
Sentiment is at 65%.
Which is extremely high.
And insider selling has been eight to one and sellers first buyers -- in the last two weeks.
She got insider selling and you've got high had negative sentiment I mean high bullish sentiment which is.
From a contrarian negative.
But I don't bullish sentiment that a bullish sentiment is not that high it's not that I still brown 32 -- -- has been around 6566.
That's it's incorrect.
-- -- That's it killing those seventy traditionally have watched since I was a kid while crowds to -- Now I don't make money here Brad because you you are short only and I'd like some of your ideas because that I've been pretty interest and especially.
When we've gotten good numbers on the consumer you still feel that some names that are consumer oriented should be short of what are -- So coaches are number one short right.
Now.
Day who have had Paul pastor in the LA recession where they were blowing -- a lot of inventory at full price and to China.
They have have a lot of competition in China.
-- and including Michael -- -- from what are researches.
Looking.
Head and covered it.
It's fairy that's very negative for them for Coach.
So.
We think there's a lot of downside it's a premier.
Premium.
Retailer.
At a premium -- Alright John let me bring you quickly then.
Field -- in this well you see an extremely bullish market you are actually like some players in Europe -- We -- I think they throw the baby out about water I think Europe is an important piece of information because it's.
Created a secular trend of money moving away from governments and -- corporations that's gonna last for some time and looking inland and really will fuel this recovery.
ING is one of them that we like in particular.
-- -- -- players who we like the fixed to floats there the ING.
-- Libor plus 360 really -- it's called here I make another 8% on the call.
I'm as I mentioned as well we like come -- -- -- resource -- I personally own.
-- just to name a few.
That we do you like we like G and really any companies with a lot of leverage on their balance -- they're gonna build a trim that back -- a lot of value earnings.
Good to see you both -- layman's start active bear ETF co manager and -- like -- a leader capital CEO good to see you both.
Thanks for -- any -- election.
