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Pierpont Securities chief economist Stephen Stanley weighs in on jobless claims data.
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Camp in Florida that -- called yesterday's Labor Department data completely worthless Stephen Stanley is chief economist at your points securities.
And he joins us now.
I surveys and you -- frustrating because the methodology is so completely different and even a partisan matter you know I mean -- studied economics in college.
The way they they gathered data is so different and so desperate -- that was such different answers as -- better way to do -- us.
Well I you know I mean this this initial claims saying they came up yesterday I think was just -- you know one off snafus so I'm not gonna.
I'm not -- conspiracy theory on that -- -- And -- conspiracy theory I'm saying is there are better way to collect this data the household the payroll all the different sources that comment and and are so different.
Yet why I think the payroll surveys pretty good and they survey hundreds of thousands of businesses every month.
And economists do pay the most attention to those payroll numbers and I adding for good reason I think those are the most accurate they tend to have the least amount -- The -- very -- -- mean initial claims come out every single week and it's really tough to seasonally just weekly data.
And then of course the household survey which is the survey that the unemployment rate is derived from.
It isn't very small survey given the university talking about almost 200 million people in the potentially in the labor force and -- only survey fifty to 60000 people so you know for few people's.
Give the wrong answer for whatever reason and it can really skew the data.
A few people given the wrong anti mean -- at 873000.
In the last hustled survey vs the payrolls which was just over 100 and then -- huge disconnect -- -- You can't -- people you can't blame the media for being just totally skeptical of all of these labor.
Labor statistics.
Absolutely well I think the timing of this one kind of introduce this whole you know as it is dated -- Manipulated in front election and I think that's a bit unfortunate but what I think you're seeing is is not.
Totally out of the realm of possibility which is the household survey does give you very volatile data from one month to the next.
And again that's why economists for the most part tend to focus mostly on the on the employment.
-- you like the payrolls figure Steven you've also got all these private surveys ADP challenger gray and Christmas and they're so much information out there.
Really what as voters as taxpayers.
As journalists what should be keen to to make our determination on the health of the labor market.
Right we'll different surveys look at different things and anything you know we think about the labor market they're really two aspects to it right -- people who are losing their jobs and then there are people who are getting -- And some of the data for example the initial jobless claims numbers the challenger -- layoff announcement numbers.
Look it only specifically at the layoff piece of the equation I think right now.
There's not a lot of volatility in layoffs we -- so many people that were laid off during the downturn.
You know businesses aren't laying a lot of people off that the that action right now is on the hiring side and what we've seen in this recovery.
Is that there are times when businesses seem to be getting more enthusiastic about hiring people and then and other times it slows back off.
Me ask you real quick before we got out I mean if you look at just last Friday's data there -- 759000.
People in the household -- that said that they found a job that they didn't show up in the other survey as being on payrolls.
What do you think adding what do you think those 759000.
People are doing.
Well I.
I think it's just statistical noise that they household measure of employment had actually fallen in the two months prior.
I'd I suspect it's probably gonna fall again next month so that it also lose out in the end over long periods of time the two kind of work together but.
You know -- one month and actually get a lot of noise and counsel survey.
The payroll survey tends to be more stable so that's you know that's -- -- -- TI.
A lot of noise -- -- But a lot of noise knowing cloudy on airplanes -- -- unit case.
