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Jefferies analyst Brian Tanquilut on the debate's impact on health-care stocks.
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There as a top priority tonight my next guest says -- health -- investors.
On edge joins me.
Jefferies analyst Brian -- it.
Thanks so much for joining us let's get right to -- I mean Medicare is obviously going to be top of mind during the debate tonight.
-- and there's a trade based on that.
Yeah I think -- -- that with Ryan obviously talking about.
They can do -- big shift in the Medicare program you know we're gonna shift to a premium support plan.
And really keeping all the a lot of the rate cuts for an Affordable Care Act that Obama pushed.
A year ago I think that you're gonna see some volatility -- these Medicare providers particularly the hospitals who are.
-- the most linked.
To the Affordable Care Act and if any changes happened -- they're gonna think anyone seriously movements on.
Yet there's a lot of volatility in hospitals but they are pretty she at this point right I mean we're looking at a chart right now.
Of where they trade I wonder thirty deals and there.
Not that think he had -- he had right now -- had what what we're seeing is that there is volatility.
I think they're from new winds are still -- -- to see some pressure on those hospital stocks.
But for more fundamental perspective if you look at the valuations on names like HCA community health.
Tenet Healthcare I mean these things are trading pretty close to where they were -- -- before the Supreme Court ruled on Affordable Care Act back in June so.
I can make the case -- that they are cheap but I also know that there's any volatility between now November 6 and after that.
They are potentially big scandals these levels what the pharmacy benefit managers I mean they are not necessarily directly exposed Medicare.
Exactly and and that's why did -- that -- we are pitching their clients today is.
You know with a volatility that you're gonna see in these health care provider names I think names like Express Scripts and catamaran court.
These are names that do not have direct Medicare exposure.
Date will be beneficiaries.
Of Affordable Care Act actually stays.
With thirty million new Medicare new insured lives.
And so I think they're safe havens right now they're great places to hide.
And even if post elections I think they've got phenomenal -- was will be -- first for both of those things -- do you avoiding here.
Yeah I -- there are names like -- the home health group while we're look at Amedisys almost family Gentiva.
And -- she -- these are names that.
Have targets on their backs owning -- home health industry has been identified.
As you know.
But an area fraud and abuse and where there's a lot of spending growth and so.
Congress is going after those guys no matter what and whether -- surrounding presidency are -- a -- presidency.
I think you're gonna see some pressure -- -- -- -- you anything unexpected coming tonight I mean that's kind of -- -- questions -- expecting it.
You know you're predicting -- it's not unexpected but what are you looking for that you think the rest of the crowd maybe isn't.
-- I think what -- what's gonna come out in tonight's debates is that they're gonna press Paul Ryan pretty hard and more details I.
You what he -- -- -- Medicaid expansion and that's obviously a key component of the ACA and that's a key factor for a lot of health care providers stocks.
What do you do with the use voucher program -- the voucher program that he's pitching you know how does that really work and in the Medicare rate cuts there -- the numbers being tossed out there anywhere from 50600.
Billion dollars that's a big number and so.
You know we we've heard Mitt Romney say it.
President -- you are kind of Medicare program it's governor billion but the Ryan's plan -- those same numbers and they're so I think the -- -- Added that they squeeze out of Paul rise tonight will be worth watch and that'll be worthwhile OK thanks so much great staff.
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