How Close of an Election Will it Be?

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Striking visual difference you'll notice when you watch tonight's debate the age gap between the two met Joseph Biden is 27 years older than poll Ryan.

This issue came up with the vice presidential debate in 2004.

That yes.

The first time to remove shoes when walked on the stage tonight.

Because the of journalism much younger -- a -- the company now is called road with -- we do that flashback to 2000 -- -- the gets them to do that did you not.

-- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- I think governor Romney wins in with five points in the November election why am I wrong.

Well first from your lips to God's ears -- hope you're right but look I think the race -- be closer than that the country's -- divided.

The president is spending a lot of money he's hammering.

Romney in the battleground states -- and look there's there.

It's hard to -- an incumbent president and particularly one who takes office.

After the other parties had the White House for eight years.

I mean that we that we did that would Jimmy Carter in the last haven't happened before Jimmy Carter was Grover Cleveland but.

Our own books but you half expect a book your recovery and for the London -- -- -- -- -- -- Now seriously.

What you'll polls and all pulled out of my polls and I hope deductibles and when I look at the polls to something I think that they I'm not measuring.

And that's the number of people who will absolutely definitely tone out and vote when you poll on that basis when you ask people will you.

Accept it definitely definitely vote.

A launch plurality says I'm voting full got the wrong way.

You at the polls don't measure of that that's why wells -- likely voters polled the likely voter screens attempt to measure that in various and sundry ways differing from poll to poll of polls -- likely voter screens take that into account.

But look at -- we do know this first of all the incumbent prison United States has to be at -- consistently above 50% because whatever number.

President Obama has in the final polls is going to be the ceiling and he's in all likelihood gonna get lesson that in 2004 I think the last Gallup number for bush.

Was 53 and you got 51 because look.

The people in a close election your detractors are more likely to turn out -- -- your supporters and second of all.

We have a problem that.

If you had if you're an undecided or swing voter today and you've not been convinced by President Obama after.

Four years in office in a sixteen month long campaign and a barrage of ads and all that's been going on.

You're likely to break against the present which will in essence bring down the president's number and raise up Romney's number.

Now I absolutely if you take a look at it this -- isn't very good shape before the the national polls.

Before the debate.

Had him behind by about three point 1% as of this last in the afternoon that he was ahead by -- one point one.

That's a four point 2% swing and we haven't seen the end of the swing remember we had this weird -- the debate was on Thursday.

Monday it was a holiday so pollsters generally try to get -- polls done by Sunday night.

Or would back in the -- so the full impact of the impotence the -- we've not seen that you know I think it's gonna end of -- -- five.

Maybe five and a half points -- which.

-- -- one presidential debate is enormous and an even more important in the number Stewart is.

The improvement in Romney's image there were so many things that people looked at him before hand.

And sort of wandered in there in that debate we've seen lots of evidence that he came across this authentic and common sense of practical and with a plan that would make their lives.

-- great -- if you think -- -- Democrats Microsoft for all the polls show Democrats maybe 3% going for Romney but.

Might that those old Reagan Democrats as we used to com.

Swing as a result of the image of Obama that -- talked about kind of melting away well the Reagan Democrats -- became Reagan Republicans but are there are some Democrats particularly new cells independents -- new cell Democrats.

Who might say the economic issues are overwhelming my desire to hang him with of the it and who you know who -- who work kind of necessarily by the of the locally to look a little -- -- yeah let's remember this so.

Romney's numbers among independents and all of these polls after the debates show.

Leads of up to twenty points among independents and that's enormous book and and again the enthusiasm of the -- -- alluded to at the end of the day.

That you look there were so many people are despaired when you have a million dollar donor to do Obama super pac -- you know he's try to throw the match.

That you got a lack of enthusiasm among your people which which will be reflected in -- seen in my columnist for the Wall Street Journal pointed out.

I mean we're seeing it reflected in the early voting numbers -- began even before the debates.

That the Republican enthusiasm the Romney enthusiasm.

The significantly better than other -- was required reading today to see you know.

-- -- well I hope every single Thursday every single Thursday of those votes cast slowly.

There is a clear lead amongst Republicans that that's correct essential and most -- -- -- life been like for example in Iowa it's Democrat but the Democrat margin.

The Democrats and I were pretty good -- turning -- votes early.

But compared to where they were four years ago it's well under the Republicans are doing much better so if you look at if you look at apples to oranges.

Comparisons is one thing that you looked apples to apples compare where the Democrats were in 2008 where they are today this like look a look at Ohio for.

Franklin County Ohio huge county Columbus.

Battleground -- has been going for the Democrats in recent years and the Democrats had a huge registration I mean huge early voted -- four years ago.

Now the Republicans and attorneys went right in that county that county Franklin cant take it we're seeing it across though however I was looking at some of these.

And -- 41% more Republican votes in Democrats in counties were maybe.

8% more Democrat -- Republican four years ago.

There's some of this phase 11% last one college fund my real fast how money can you can measure how many people voted for McCain last time around.

But this time will vote for Obama -- which the other way -- -- and polling -- 85 virtually no when I mean it's it's so close to 00 on the other hand.

Lot of people who say either I'm undecided -- -- vote for Obama last -- horrible for wrong in this -- -- we always appreciate being with us thank.

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How Close of an Election Will it Be?

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