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-- data more on this morning's confusing -- report -- we've been talking about here with initial jobless claims falling.
Lowest level more than four years but then we've learned one large state apparently under reported claims self Anthony Chan is the chief economist for chase wealth management -- -- way that we just ignore these numbers today.
Entity because we can kind of assume an advance so go up in the next couple weeks or -- I know I don't really think we should ignore them I do realize that there may be a little bit of a distortion every calendar quarter.
The beginning you usually get a big boost and the number of people filing for claims to recertify their status.
And then that -- number is used and and -- -- seasonally adjusted number to compute the seasonally just a number which is one was reported.
So we should expect that some of this drop this probably artificial brought the craft of the truth story is that the the -- -- -- -- telling -- certainly the market conditions may have improved.
OK let me ask you about that in the have you expand out -- a little bit because going back to Friday when the unemployment rate surprisingly dropped to seven point 8%.
Beyond -- the conspiracy stuff which.
It out but -- silly that it is is no evidence to support that however it could be a statistical fluke right -- -- one off month it's very volatile about household survey they have that people alike.
Okay what does that tell us than you have today a lot of noise in the numbers so.
What's really happening describe forest what's really happening in your view what you look at the labor market right now.
The truth of the matter is that we're growing at about a 2% growth -- so we should not expect the magnificent surge in employment growth.
But numbers in the neighborhood of a 150000.
Are reasonable in this kind of an environment.
Part two to 300000.
Gains in payrolls reasonable absolutely not we need to see growth accelerate a little bit more.
And so when I see a little bit of an improvement he had got to sort of separate the wheat from the shaft and it and assume.
That some of the out fluctuations may be due to just a normal statistical variation that you see in the numbers but.
Improvement in labor market conditions absolutely right that things look a little bit but things.
Are are are they not as good as they appear or are we being misled a little bit by these most recent figures do you think or.
Or or how would you describe the trend and and -- a little bit further out if you can -- end of the year into next -- what you expect.
The truth of the matter is that we're going to continue to see improvement in labor market conditions but looking at the unemployment rate can be a little misleading.
Because you when you are well aware of the fact that over the last 61218.
Months are -- force participation rate has been coming down so that it tends to distort the value of looking at the unemployment rate.
It does and we -- we've talked a lot about that we did on Friday as well.
Look at the chart of the -- -- self are trying to put it all together and he did pretty good job of it is always good to see Anthony Anthony Chan thanks for coming up.
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