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IBD’s Terry Jones on the latest polling data showing President Obama is weakening in the poll.
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Thanks a lot.
And -- -- investors business daily in their tip wants its daily presidential tracking poll yesterday.
-- -- -- typical presidential tracking poll has actually been the most accurate to 122004.
And 2008 election cycles.
In the first one this year Mitt Romney holds a two point lead over President Obama this is among likely voters.
Join a company now from Los Angeles is Terry associate editor.
Other investors business daily at spokesperson for the I'd -- DT IPP polling partnership very welcome to the show.
Thank you very much Charles well you guys that you guys get a lot of credit got to get a lot of credibility with you're polling.
And you know first let's just talk about the pull any surprise -- from the results.
Yeah a lot of surprises one was.
Obama has weaken considerably.
Among independents.
That we now have -- a major gap opened in the independent category with.
Romney having a 54% of them that you got remember in.
2008.
Obama captured them -- by eight percentage point so this has been a major swing right now here's a thing.
-- Couple weeks ago you had a lot of people on -- right question polls in this sampling size and boy or not this we're gonna left a lot of people questioning pulls the bottom line polls are starting to be questioned by almost everyone.
With respect to their ability to call race and then the composition of these polls what do you make of this pretty that particular is -- some legitimacy to it.
I think there's some legitimacy to -- you look at that you look at the polls and a lot of the polls that were coming out in August and September had Democrats.
Over represented by 10% 11% 13%.
These are just not credible numbers due in 2008 they had an -- of seven percentage points in voting that is.
An epic collection that was a historic election for Democrats with a lot of enthusiasm.
So if you see a poll with they a sampling of 10% or 11% -- For the Democrats.
It just simply is incredible.
What distinguishes Europe although you know -- you've been better than everyone else -- What what makes it that so so good.
Well we've gone out of our way to create a very stable.
Model that does not over sample we base it on actual registrations of people so we're not going out and asking people each and every day what what their registration as because that in at a little volatility.
And we've been very careful on our modeling not to.
You know.
Interpret interpret things.
-- and excessive degree we're just letting the people speak and we go out we get 800.
People to start with has a sample and then we do 200 day and with the get a moving average and that moving average helps keep a stable.
Realistic.
Poll polling number and that we were very good 20042008.
-- -- Our pollster -- my -- -- was within.
Very very a razor thin margins of actually calling the both both races.
There's a thing Terry I'd be the pro business newspaper.
Perhaps your critics who say.
Somehow you're skewing this particularly when that when you guys get these independents where.
I don't know anyone else is showing this sort of votes rent among independents that your -- -- Well -- based on.
Polls -- taken across the country and based on.
Registrations.
With independents make up about 28% of the full voting electorate.
And our poll that shows clearly a swing towards Romney and this is a very.
Unequivocal result.
And if you go back in 2008 again.
That was a major factor in president Obama's win he he took them -- -- at 8%.
Points aren't Terry Jones obviously -- -- -- spotlight now spoke.
-- need to make it a trifecta thanks a lot we appreciate it --
