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Barclays senior geopolitical strategist Helima Croft weighs in on concerns among Turkish investors in the Syria dispute.
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Thank you might pick -- As the situation between Turkey and Syria continues to escalate -- saying it's ready to step up and defend alliance member Turkey another big story today on an -- justice just back.
From a trip to Turkey says the investment community is waiting for the United States to act -- crop this with this for Barkley senior geopolitical strategist there what does that mean that the they they think the US is gonna command and.
Askew when the united it was gonna come and that -- them make concern among the Turks investment I spoke with they consider security situation is deteriorating their increasing attacks.
On Turkish soldiers coming from Syria.
And they are wondering when the United States -- do what it did in Libya really provide strong support for the rebels.
And I was sort of alarming that when my that I don't think the United States is going to come in any time soon it's -- really turkeys on its own.
But you'd a -- for us believe not what's at stake here.
Because Syria we look at Syria doesn't produce much oil at all and then Turkey but then you have to factor and a rock.
The critical clue what out of -- critical nature of the production out of Iraq to offset what we've lost com or the world has lost -- coming out of Toronto and no where else can we act so much oil to the market from conventional supply -- Iraq.
I'm an airport that just came out today was talking matter -- going to six million barrel today.
By 20/20 no other country can put an additional three million -- on the market like Iraq could and -- -- a rocket.
The security situation -- -- cheering because of events in Syria.
I think significant implications for the production profile but it's countries like Jordan as well countries like Lebanon.
-- at the heart of the middle least and so this thing drags on it could be ugly for a number of.
Nations and it seems to get worse by the day but by the Ricci.
It escalates in other words.
That -- -- I thought it was interesting to hear you say right at the top that the the people over there are assuming or wondering whether the United States is gonna get involved.
That seems to be a step further than we thought about it here.
We're all kind of assuming we won't get involved and they do we should be thinking about it differently I don't know.
No I was in Turkey and they assumed that they Kurdish government would not be so forward cleaning you know if they didn't have a quiet -- from the United States -- -- have made out that they would have their back.
And what's interesting in terms the Obama administration is.
He's given no signal I don't really willing to do anything more -- Romney has talked about providing more support for the rebels.
But it's not really clear no one's talking about active intervention on the side of the Syrian rebels -- do you have -- and the deal is there any reason to believe that President Obama would do something while we're trying to get out of Afghanistan do something with serious -- all watch sport is -- tranche of the chemical weapons to Hezbollah I think that is a significant red lines at the aside ports -- were to do that.
I think they'll precipitate some much bigger crisis in -- the United States but barring that -- barring some major attack on Turkey.
I think cornice gruesome ugly stalemate for how long a likened back on I -- could drag on for -- year last year tears yes.
Because we mention at the top what the impact on the presidential election here in the United States.
Would be -- you think it'll just become a status quo through November and beyond -- I think -- again in weeks apart by and the rebels and things like shoulder fired missiles that could take down the -- helicopter gunships.
You potentially game changer but -- and that if we don't really out to supply weapons to the rebels.
It enough weapons to stay in the game then maybe not enough to get a big -- on the outside government so I think -- It -- -- what about.
Overall picture for oil production revelation that you mention the outlook for Iraq but are we in this.
Area where you think will be at ninety dollars a barrel for months and months maybe even years.
We don't we look at -- -- only say you know we have 125 per -- Brent for next year.
And that's based on the fact that again we see the supply -- remaining constrained and we look at Iraq becoming the second largest producer and gopac.
That also were -- because.
Not three and 65 people were killed in the month of September -- the second highest it was -- monthly death toll two years the security situation is very fragile.
It hasn't affected the oil outside -- yet.
But if it does you can really see companies pull back up from production and that have a big impact on the market time.
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