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J.P. Morgan Chief Equity Strategist Tom Lee on the outlook for the markets through the end of the year.
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Stuff coming down S&P up nearly 16%.
That's just year to date up more than 25%.
Year over year but.
Where will we be Imus is always sort of -- it forward where will we be by the end of the year top late.
JPMorgan back with our revised S&P target top up -- down.
Up there yet.
You know we we feel pretty good about how markets -- gonna reform between now and year end.
And we think in the short term this is -- between now and in Election Day.
We we could see at least 1495 on the S&P 500 if not higher.
One of the things we're really sort -- watching closely is what active managers are gonna do you know this is a very tough here -- -- mutual funds.
And -- 20092010.
To -- eleven what they did in the final months of the year was really by data -- higher file -- stocks that really move the index up.
Between September near and it was about a 10% move and a -- of a 10% move its you know much that's pushing 85.
OK so you -- 1438 now you're 1495.
So now comes the big question what -- -- here Tom what it in which sector do you think.
He's really poised to do very well.
Well we so we think that the winners of this year are still going to be winners but we do like some lagging sectors I think you know.
-- six consumer discretionary we still like we like technology is well.
I think investors wanna take a look at financials comic something that hasn't been around for three years it's done pretty well this year but there's really a lot of earnings momentum there still and -- -- group.
And we just like industrials.
Okay -- a consumer discretionary because yes while they're up about 30%.
Year over year -- I think year to date it's done really well.
These -- of the companies where again the term discretionary.
You don't have to spend money on these things are not sort of necessities these are the higher and companies -- maybe not necessarily mean you've got Amazon and and you know other companies like that Macy's for example consumer discretionary Coach Tiffany.
That's right well consumer discretionary is a catch all group it's basically anything that is not -- consumer Staples Sony includes media stocks.
Hotels gaming and lodging.
Cable networks.
And I I think we have to members that the strength in the US has been the consumer this year there's been very good income growth.
How we've had decent employment growth -- had really good housing data and I think that when you think about earnings revisions are the potential for its really mean that group.
An optimist folks this is so -- -- -- can I I'm actually on top side are you know I'm usually optimistic but I just believe that people who opened bedding down this rally in betting against it.
Have been 1000%.
Wrong.
It's not that would be the issues that they believe in.
The so called fiscal -- coming here but -- you know what don't fight the tape let me just quickly ask you technology everybody.
It's so passionate about technology apple of course is is kind of wavering today but where -- technology go between on the end to figure.
Well you know it's it's a group that really has a potential to have much better multiples and it's a very good yeah these are very high margin businesses get earnings.
You know technology spend is very sensitive to the global economic cycle and I do think.
As bad as the -- been over the summer specially -- Europe and China I think things are gonna start turning next year.
That's very good for technology and and again at it really wanna -- the big leader names in there with a little piece and there's a bunch of them out there.
Yeah just look for the PE ratio folks and then to see with their cash flow is good to see Tom thanks thanks for having me joining us.
Probably JPMorgan chief US equity strategist 1495.
For the S&P 500.
