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Investors Taking Money Out of Stocks

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    Cumberland Advisors co-founder David Kotok on investors walking away from stocks.

  • Duration 3:39
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-- stocks near highs multi year highs in the major averages are all up at least 9% so far this year but.

Average investors are running the other way taking their money out of equities what's going on here here to answer that is TV Kotaku.

Vice chairman -- -- investment officer David so great to have you is always.

I would imagine one thing on a lot of investors minds right now it is yes and -- earnings forecast expected decline about 3% for this latest quarter when you think.

Well that is certainly we're gonna see -- Alcoa first then we'll go through the lineup we're gonna see a couple of big banks out early and now give us guidance wells.

JPMorgan Chase.

That they're real question is says it looks to losses if we're talking about 25 dollars a quarter give or take a few pennies out of the S&P 500 index.

That's going to be relatively flat may be in total a few pennies better.

That's a hundred dollars a year.

Operating earnings from the S&P.

In -- environment where the long term US government reference risk for this rate is under two buck under 2%.

That's a bargain.

-- you know I was interested to see the latest trading volumes because you're you're talking -- bit about how the average investor is walking away here.

In August trading in online discount brokerage accounts was down 37%.

And -- year over year you can't even say that's because August is a light month.

That's compared to last August and what we see that the markets are up.

9% for the year I wonder is the individual investor walking away and missing out on return.

I think sell Melissa I think they're investing class in the United States.

Is still undergoing.

Traumatic shock and recovery from it which is why always bond flows continue to go -- funds.

And those fund managers have to go buy treasuries -- one point 61 point seven because they gotta do something to put the money to work.

The stock market has been maligned for awhile while -- clients.

If you believe the interest rates are gonna be low for a number of years and I do I believe Bernanke is gonna -- -- he says.

And stock prices are headed higher may -- much higher.

But -- a problem then that the Fed is manipulating the stock market that we of the wealth effect fully in effects.

And therefore.

Do you have to be a little bit cautious that even know we're gonna be in this accommodative environment for -- -- your point David things could turn around rapidly catch people off guard.

Well sure -- that's one of the reasons that the market is going up while the investing class is a lot on the sideline.

Because everybody's re playing this what are we gonna do when the extraction comes.

What are we gonna do when the inflation comes.

What are we gonna do when the policy changes meanwhile we don't have the inflation we don't -- extraction and the policy hasn't changed.

You take -- -- -- our clients are both of us talking at once pinpointed and higher not into any way to note to forecast when these things when she may drop so to speak.

Well here's -- we don't know we know the unemployment rate has to get substantially.

Lower the Fed has made that the criteria we have one fed president says under seven.

Another -- says five and a half who knows -- we also know it's gonna take 2345.

Years to get there slow recovery.

So I think we can say.

Fed says 2015.

Believe -- and it might be sixteen.

David thanks so much.

Thank you.

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