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Michelle Girard, RBS economist, on the disconnect between the household jobs added versus private jobs added in today’s jobs reports.
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Of the latest jobs report shows the unemployment rate at seven point 8% that is the lowest since President Obama took office in Peter Barnes.
Is in Washington with all of the number is an unexpected mourning today Peter.
Today months it was a stunner over the Labor Department this morning those of us in the press lock up just there was an audible gasp when we saw this.
Unemployment rate most economists had expected it to go up in September but the Labor Department reporting that 873000.
People.
Told them.
That they found worked last month and that is what pushed the unemployment rate down to seven point 8% the lowest level since January 2009.
And the first time it has been below 8% since then.
Now nearly 600000.
Of these newly employed people said they were working part time for economic reasons.
Regardless of all that several economists said today they think that this burst of jobs -- growth was likely a statistical fluke.
The monthly numbers are volatile because the survey size is small and it includes self employed people and agriculture workers.
But it is less than a month to Election Day so the president jumped at the chance to crow about it.
This morning.
That the unemployment rate has fallen to its lowest level since I took off.
More people are dead -- job.
Now separately as you mentioned the survey of work places found that employers added a 1141000.
Nonfarm.
Payroll jobs in September that was about as expected.
Both the president and Mitt Romney agree though that is still not strong enough to get everybody who wants a job back to work Melissa -- Peter -- thank you so much for that report.
From Washington to Wall Street only to main street people are digesting the September jobs number of let's bring an RBS economist Michelle -- -- let's figure out if it's.
At the end of the day good news for -- -- great to see you so how are people to make cents and of the household survey which you know showing 873000.
New jobs against the private payrolls number -- companies said they added 1141000.
Nonfarm payrolls seems like a disconnect.
It does out of you know the two surveys are often -- At at this everything the household survey is always more volatile is not uncommon to see -- gains.
Ever losses outing in the household survey of -- 500000.
That this sample sizes small lemonade below what upset.
Represent the population you just get a lot more volatile swings the -- themselves say that.
You really need keynesian changes and over 400000.
Even -- this statistically significant -- On that is one of the reasons -- also you know we can talk about the fact that there I did think it was a statistical boost.
From youth employment that I think led to -- overstated employment increase in September.
He household survey really raises -- a lot of questions about what constitutes a job is -- the traditional job for company where you're entitled to benefits.
And the like or Peter Barnes is referring to that the self employed people who are doing their startups -- or -- the job just any you know -- generating income.
At this point in the recovery.
Well -- Well and it's important kind of look at the dynamics and employment situation in terms of you know we've talked about underemployment the fact that you have people.
Who are working part time who would rather be working full time and and that's not.
I mean that's meaningful so I mean -- we still see a situation when the economy.
Is in an under employed -- situation NN and I guess you know in general when you step back and think wow.
Why -- 78 that's great news but the other hand it's still seven point you know 8% and that's not so -- and I just think that.
You know we stepped back from them month to month volatility -- improve at least they would still have weight and always -- If the participation rate rose 110 of 1% -- that fair to -- at the improvement in unemployment.
He's not because people are giving up which -- -- -- case in prior months that is definitely the case that in this month we had a big gain up over 400000 in the labor force that reason that.
On the employment the unemployment -- down was because twice as many actually found work and sell.
And this is one of those months where it -- on the unemployment rate was good news all the way around there wasn't some aspect of it that.
The typically takes a way front that the message it sent yet Michelle on the payroll survey -- had a 101000 rising government job and private sector hiring was weaker than expected.
And I would argue that's a real -- -- ports.
Well I you know I think actually in the pair also they -- just more accurate so that's why every month that's what we focus on headline job gains reported.
By companies actually paying workers not by households -- say whether or not there working -- in any case.
-- -- -- September -- very much in line with the kind of tepid job -- that we've seen over the last couple months and I still step back and say you know the employment situation.
Is probably not getting any worse but it certainly doesn't seem like it's getting any better and at this -- -- -- sub.
125000.
Weird does not gonna get sustained declines further price declines in the unemployment rate so is it safe -- -- here Michelle that the unemployment rate is safely below 8% for the time being -- I you know.
I wouldn't be surprised to see a bit of an give back up -- next month than I I guess I just -- It's going to be slow progress as we move our way below 8% what we sure appreciate you joining us this -- -- -- Larry great to have -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --
