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Jared Levy, Zacks.com senior equity strategist, on what to watch in the week ahead including retail earnings and consumer sentiment.
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-- what should you be watching we're joined by Jack Levy senior equity strategist -- exact dot com -- eleven year as we -- bullet through some stuff.
First thing in your notes you said retail earnings this quarter earnings season starts next week why are retail -- So important to you.
Well okay remember that you're only 14% of retailers actually give us the figures monthly -- monthly figure we get.
It's only a small piece so if the earnings season -- -- really get the gist of what's going on companies like Wal-Mart target Macy's.
These guys and their CEOs are giving us information and -- -- -- It what's really going on.
Behind the scenes remember you we just got the retail numbers that target yet are growing but they're growing slower I wanna know how these CEOs feel about the holiday season -- remember 40%.
Of retail revenue is derived right.
In that fourth.
Quarter -- and that's it's a great point which leads me to cook the CPI coming out Producer Price Index Consumer Price Index coming out next week to.
And you may -- point that.
Instead the -- has been moderate which means.
Consumer prices and an increase because that means there's sucking up the difference right.
Yeah you know -- And here's that delicate balance right like if you're up you know let's just say -- I don't maker of washers and dryers right in your input cost you're still costs are going higher.
You don't you can only sell those watches it -- let's say -- -- dollars apiece.
Consumers are really strapped right now they're not able to pay more so producers.
Of these products have been yet keeping their prices -- -- consumer level but the problem is.
If their prices keep going up and their margins keep getting squeezed.
It gets to a point where they begin to raise a look on the consumer and that's we're gonna watch out for -- that's what hurts us.
And a consumer that -- to consumers trying to grow that the big -- all be watching that closely.
-- -- -- -- the consumer doesn't want to pay higher prices though you do stay good news that commodities are probably gonna turn and I know we see you on -- -- in the -- of the CME all the time to talk about that.
OK so you know and -- a month ago I actually mother had to -- while I was up in Europe we talked about Libya come ice correction and everything that.
The after the bell that's been a big benefit for consumers both at the pump but more importantly.
In food -- You know Jersey one of the things we forget about as the bulk of our energy -- -- -- -- the bulk of our our checks are spent on energy on food.
On stuff like that and those -- committed in fact the final tidbit for you lobsters.
You know -- warm weather is actually brought down the price the lobster almost -- half of what it was last year's so.
This is benefiting the consumer and it helps a sort of factor in.
You know with that that strength that confidence we -- a couple seconds earning season starts next week Alcoa Tuesday.
JPMorgan wells on Friday.
I care about all of them an -- -- again.
Listen to the reports.
Don't read headlines go underneath and look at what the CEOs are saying listen what they have to -- for 2013 because that.
Is gonna decide the next move of the market but for now we're bullish and by the way as Romney looks it looks stronger and stronger that's also bullish for the market so I'll stay -- long here.
Reluctantly.
That led didn't names and media -- -- come back -- -- them -- -- Zacks dot com residents have the weekend.
