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Big Picture on Jobs: Just OK

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  • Description

    Jerry Webman, Oppenheimer Funds chief economist, digs into today’s jobs numbers.

  • Duration 4:00
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-- into the numbers that thank you rich.

-- -- -- dig deeper into these numbers now and Sherry Rehman chief economist with Oppenheimer Funds with us now.

You know it's it's very confusing 'cause there's so many conflicting numbers so what's your take out of these well.

Might you you know this is gonna keep statisticians and economists just -- -- I hate forward yeah hours and hours -- -- at a good time with the on the one hand on the other GAAP predict.

-- for those of us who just want to have the big picture this is a pretty good job story it says.

The economy is continuing to generate some jobs some growth.

It's not spectacular.

But it is -- continuing to trudge along I think that's really where you come down to a we get into the kind of one hand on the other hand -- -- that's kind of of the big picture is it's it's okay but not great number the number of mistakes after 873000.

People.

-- coming back into the work force but how are they coming back into the work force and is it really helping the economy.

Well you know even at whatever jobs I guess that's better than not having a job at all and the -- -- thing is not only did we we it was 800 and some thousand actual new jobs.

400000.

Increase in the labour force so whenever that happens you know that means somebody's got a job and can buy something and I'm selling some maps on -- -- I say I'm working now.

Which I have to credit -- Let's just director Fox Business fat guy that was genius by the way well I'd do if undersecretary of effectively I mean I don't want to denigrate somebody who's got out of the office thing for your website engine as an well I think if I also I say -- be employed in.

It -- I think -- in business and I figure out a way to make some money.

You've got to be careful with those who would both have to -- don't get -- -- surveys here and you there were some shortcomings to each of them.

So I don't want it that 800000 -- you -- how I would question it more -- what was odd is that for the last couple of months.

It showed no increase at all when businesses said we're hiring a few more people and so you -- there's a lot of noise in these numbers -- I don't wanna explain them away.

I wanna just kind of smooth them -- would as I try to respond back.

Think yes is going to good -- to because.

I also think a lot of people have gone to the point remain there almost embarrassed that they are unemployed.

-- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- You don't -- again if it.

People might mean lying to the pollsters.

And that's why we do these surveys all the time and that's why we ask more than one or two people.

So you know I've worked with survey data for the last -- those forty years and I know sometimes it's misleading.

And and yet you ask enough people you try to do the sampling and you.

Try to get a sample that's not misleading -- you don't look at one number now important thing is for us not to get one number under the microscope and think that's gonna tell us everything because each one of them tells a little bit of the story -- and a little bit -- from.

How many people have given up looking for work we've been told that this is quite substantial need you really include them in the -- for us what those.

Pool -- the unemployment rate is a lot higher than seven point eight well I know we get this number that we've all been looking at through this recession not the that -- gets up to what now it's still it's something likes 1516%.

Must come down a little bit but it's gonna happen about the same proportion as the headline number we all look at through the recession went up about as much.

It's come down in the same proportion so we can look at it -- lots of different ways.

Clearly people dropped out of the labor force the labor force is a smaller than it's been.

Some of that is because.

You know one of retirement age -- not retiring but some people said you know I'm just there are higher now that it's easier.

Saying there's lots of these reasons people would discourage -- I asked him to look at this as a quarter full.

Rather than 310 -- -- here again.

I the F 600000 people took part time work when they -- fulltime -- I don't think that's company you have with the C chairman got to work part time and not at all zero -- events of the numbers right people landed on the next let's talk -- -- -- -- -- -- three -- -- -- -- thank -- --

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