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North: Next Unemployment Rate Will Be Under 8%

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  • Description

    Euler Hermes chief economist Dan North weighs in on the unemployment rate.

  • Duration 2:48
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The September jobs report released this morning we saw big drop in the unemployment rate.

But will -- added a 1141000.

Jobs.

And my next guest says that that is way below what we need to see an economic growth joining us now Baltimore Dan north popular Hermes thanks for being with a Dan.

Contradictory numbers out today on one -- -- household survey had 870000.

People saying yeah you know what we started working but then these survey of businesses had only a 103000.

Private sector jobs.

What's number do you believe 87300103.

Oh I think the establishment survey -- more than 103 of the 1141141000.

Altogether.

It's a much bigger share today it's much more reliable economists usually look at that.

Much more so than they household serve today.

So I would definitely go with that number if you look at the unemployment rate which has got everybody abuzz this morning.

That is always been a somewhat -- volatile on reliable number.

So it's not you know it's it's it dropped a lot over the past two months.

But its stance -- statistical out liar but it's always been a volatile and not terribly reliable numbers I very much lean towards the the establishments -- Now that 103000 private sector job jealous below expectation the 114 you refer to that's when adding government jobs and you point out the previous two months were upward revisions largely or -- -- read -- -- because the government jobs.

I don't like it when government jobs are adding and responsible for most of our job growth.

Well that's that's that's a good -- I mean I think that government spending.

Being 25%.

Of GDP is certainly historically much larger than it's ever been -- and my very much like Ireland should be.

So I think you know you hate thing people losing their jobs but government employment has been too bad for for awhile so it's.

You know the trend of government jobs going down I think is beneficial overall right now what is.

As the chance just to take the other side the -- minute that any household survey went up what basically to boldly patterned -- 873000.

New jobs.

That those people are actually working at home and they're doing freelance style jobs allowed to get through this bad economy better.

-- the numbers be true.

While while I suppose it's possible that seems like a really huge number compared to the much more reliable establishment survey -- so.

You can speculate about what they might be doing at home selling stuff -- -- -- calling had a job and I don't know.

But I wouldn't put a whole lot of stock had been honest with you -- I think we have one more maybe employment report coming -- before the actual election.

If you had to guess I mean no one -- predictions -- -- come true.

We'll -- unemployment rate go down further still.

My suspicion is that there'll be under 8% yes you really for a further OK thanks very much -- north and getting.

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