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Some ways the political argument or the political discussion about all of this because of the reason why.
It happened and before I -- -- Steve were to -- let god Nicole Petallides at the exchange just give us a quick snapshot quick set up.
For how the market is looking on all of this is -- of the opening element.
Plus an hour -- we -- futures pointing to higher opening Colin day in but I as soon as the numbers come out.
Traders on Wall Street were walking around Simon and some disbelief they don't necessarily.
Think the numbers are a 100% on target.
One even going as far as to say is it sounds to me like pick up the box -- -- the question is how.
After all of these months above 8% that we miraculously move below that 8% mark.
If that is right on target that is wonderful it's wonderful for the American people.
And also for the current administration which obviously came out -- flailing after the debates we did see crude oil.
Coming off of earlier highs and so that -- At little -- and sold off below that also treasuries were on the move after this -- well also assesses this is the environment but we significantly see the futures.
Improving on the -- back -- you.
Nicole thank you so much that will also want to bring in Steve -- senior economics writer for the Wall Street Journal is joining us live in DC.
What do you make of these numbers that 873000.
Job gain in the household survey I know -- I've been part of the survey they call you -- and say.
Are you work and -- you're looking for work are you work and and that's as simple as that stay -- bank.
Well it does show hiring is increasing now look we I'll probably think that this 800000 number is a little bit too high body benefits -- -- -- by a half that's still a huge number.
Of new jobs.
You know I'm just still looking through some of these numbers -- but one of things that -- jumped out at me was.
This broader unemployment.
Number that often times we look out.
And this one held steady at fourteen point 7%.
A lot of Americans feel that's the real unemployment rate because that includes people who can't find a full time job that includes people who.
We've just become so discouraged -- are not looking for a job anymore.
But you know the president we always called the of the overall unemployment rate the headline number.
And that dug out of seven point papers that will be the headline to -- and it's very good news for Barack Obama.
Right right back to where it was January 2000 that headline right now thinking pink.
The same rate had to see the -- and you -- with this beforehand.
Now that we've gotten there it is seven point 8% -- he set.
I I I think everybody is -- this think of what Peter just said these are not people traditionally working.
They're saying we're working but they're not actually holding jobs with companies that the difference in the household survey and the establishment survey to these are people.
Who can't get jobs at a company if -- -- smirk on eBay and generating come and you decide that's going to be your job and I don't -- that is until your people.
Who just haven't found work and so they started a home business which is great and it's nice absorbed -- some I'm doing little things for babies rooms on again selling experts on -- I'm suddenly working which is why you have these 800000.
Those people traditionally have never really counted because in that the -- grand scheme of things they're not working if you're an independent contractor.
Well that means maybe I'm consulting I'm doing this and that I may not be generating revenue -- actually still be looking for real job.
But for the fact that for the first time.
In in you know twenty or thirty years we're actually counting these people's employed is the reason that you have this this number you can't suddenly have.
800000 people entering the workforce and say.
Is this grade and -- down this this is a not only statistical anomaly stretches the definition of who works.
And because of that I think that that goes down -- -- -- I just think the people.
Have been gone from giving up to deciding -- -- tried to do it on their own -- -- -- that's not gonna generate.
Any sort of real income or more importantly any sort of strength of the economy well look like they've got this huge kid can stay more Harry.
Are going go ahead path yeah let Taylor spot back as I don't really totally agree with that.
Look at the one thing about this household -- is it does pick up.
For example new businesses -- -- have been started up those are traditionally in the establishment survey because they Labor Department doesn't know that those businesses exist so.
I don't think we should call these phantom jobs we need to look deeper into this and to this report and figure out.
How it is that the one report showed a 140000 job increase in the other 1800000.
But it is true that to some extent.
That this household survey picks up real jobs that artist are picked up by establishment survey know that's confusing you know but to say what did say the one is one is that is not -- and -- a.
Which are very I think is wrong it picks up new jobs -- economy now if it does pick up new jobs you're absolutely right.
But I -- -- you so no other signs of that kind of pick up in business activity in the past couple months is a lot of -- -- that you look at.
It that don't account for that for this coming if you had this great entrepreneurial spirit taking over America I would be cheering this.
It's just yet you know like this does but it kicks it at a rate of a 300000.
Not 800000 you have to you have to find people who suddenly say that that there working.
And an outside of the realm of what we can traditionally -- you as being employed plus.
If you want jobs have an impact on GDP you want them to be reflected more in the establishment standing in the household you will because the jobs -- if somebody self employed.
In most cases they're gonna be making a lot less -- generating a lot.
Let's for the economy than they would getting a job for for some these establishment that's surely mitigate the impact of this number falling less on the overall economy.
Then you might say from saying wow -- this great the unemployment rates -- That's true and they get around one interest in -- out that it's like if you look at the -- the household survey in the last few months it showed big declines in jobs so.
This eight you know we can call as volatile -- that is the key -- this one jumps up and down from -- the -- I mean a few months ago we had about a 400000.
Decline in this number now we have an 800000 increase.
You know it's it is in -- it is a roller coaster ride that -- And -- vol and stave vol domains that we can see there were parts -- -- -- -- -- that -- -- interesting -- about what he sent -- I -- to add to that first well in addition the fact that these are two different sort of -- it is the volatility of -- other survey because it's not like it has been trending in this direction.
Suddenly 800000 people largely decided to create their own jobs for -- in one month.
I -- this is a very narrow survey and it is subject.
Two big swings the other survey is slightly more reliable and it's only a 1141000 job will see over time that's one reason why one month number matter that is the trend that matters -- At just one thing because I've said repeatedly I do think people want to work I don't -- people wanna sit back and take money from the government and if you can take one month and numbers like this isn't that evidence that people want to work in support themselves and not take check.
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