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Mixed Signals of Jobs, Economic Data

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    Harvard Economist Jeffrey Miron on the outlook for the job market.

  • Duration 4:13
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In focus tonight -- jobs market private sector hiring picked up last month with just over 160000.

Jobs -- Right granted it's more than expected but still lower than a month before -- break it down Harvard economist Jeffrey Miron.

Jeffrey welcome back to the show always great to have you here -- What does this ADP report and again this is a payroll processors they have inside because they work with private businesses.

It's it was a good report what does it mean for the big -- on Friday the jobs report for the month.

-- ADP numbers have not been perfect indicators out the government's numbers from the Bureau of Labor Statistics -- few days later.

They're reasonable indicators it's a pretty good report.

But it is not a great report and it's consistent what we've been having for months and months -- carriers we sort of have a new normal.

It's what we grow but we grow slowly so the unemployment rate doesn't come down even though the number of people employed is gradually going off -- -- Not much faster than a labor.

Force he would see the relationship here in this full screen here's what a piece at small business hiring 81000 midsize companies 64000.

Large companies 171000.

The consensus that's expectations for -- reported -- week is that we get a 140000 jobs added and eight point 2%.

Jobs rate.

We want track what -- do you think something -- gonna happen.

Now that seems perfectly reasonable all the other things it would help us to serve gas where unemployment unemployment are going.

Are sort of mix and we've got -- GDP revision that was a little worse we got -- durable goods orders number that was pretty bad.

By consumer confidence is a little -- and housing in some ways of the little better so.

When you have an economy is limping along at a positive rate there are slow rate.

You're always gonna have these mixed signals and it's going to be a little bit worse -- little bit better but it's not going to be great which is what we've -- for a long time.

-- -- responded this thing that I noticed with these numbers over time.

Is that we get a jobs report.

And the previous week the previous month gets revised higher.

It's like they never get the numbers right the first time at no conspiracy theorists believe you me.

-- does seem weird coming right before an election what do you make of it.

Well I guess I don't.

See any way that -- anybody could be mucking around those numbers very easily.

I think real pretty fair job -- Really -- hi it's -- federal government came up around with numbers all the time neither the folks who.

Put together trillions of dollars and.

After all.

-- counting numbers on the budgets where congress is sitting down behind closed doors there I'll grant you there is that it's kinda.

-- gimmicks there's a ton of monkey business.

The unemployment numbers.

You know I of course I can't prove that they're done totally right but my strong strong suspicion is -- -- The up and up I don't preferences for how do you think we're gonna end this year as you look you know we're gonna have one more report here before they.

Before the election will that -- -- -- and mean if you see any improvement coming for the balance of this year.

Well I think it's really hard to predict what's gonna be coming because as we get close actually get past election.

Then we're really gonna have a discussion about whether we're going to let all these tax increases going to a fact whether the expenditure -- -- and that's I have -- and -- it's.

It's impossible to predict how that's gonna work out it could be pretty good it could be a total disaster.

You can be pretty good doesn't higher taxes hurt -- No I mean that's seen the agreement that congress comes to might be pretty good if I agreed to -- -- -- most of the tax increases.

I actually think they select expenditure cuts go through for the most part most of that spending as a waste of money so we don't do that that's great.

Right one more quick question and -- -- answer quickly.

Bernanke says he's gonna keep on pushing this economy's got his foot on the -- all the way to the floor good idea or bad.

I think -- a worse and worse idea than -- does -- I think there's a danger that we're creating a huge bubble in government bond prices.

And it's gonna explode on us and we're not gonna have much warning.

Right I agree with you Jeffrey thanks for coming on tonight it's always great to see you.

Thank you.

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