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Very much here's another question as long as we're talking about economists.
What if it's worse than even they think goodness what if we're headed into another recession well a lot of CEOs is Gary pointed out.
Are certainly getting -- the very least warning of an earnings slowdown.
Thanks to Europe and slackening demand there -- not exactly robust demand -- But what if this is bigger than the Intel's in the noting things slowing why did for the second straight quarter earnings in general and across the border slowing as well.
Joe Brown -- says it doesn't just released results from an earnings results and to just a plain old economic recession are we -- Joseph what do you think.
No I don't think we're there at this moment -- I think the possibility exists I get about a 45%.
Likely that I think that the averages are in our favor of the United States is doing better than I think how I would have thought it was doing.
I'm -- we benefiting Joseph because.
As awful as we are when you look abroad and you look agrees to look at Spain.
You look at how some of even the stronger countries are unraveling France comes to mind.
Britain's no great -- that that.
That we're just better by comparison and that's the only thing that's in our favor.
That's probably the only thing in our -- I think we have a political environment that suggests total gridlock.
I kind of when the president for that I think that we are not gonna be impervious to slowdowns in the rest of the world where there's the bricks or Europe.
Because good part of our S&P earnings come from overseas so we're not gonna be impervious.
You know until the argument is of that some of these worries are.
Longer term and these days I'm gonna say longer term as -- November election sort of your Barack Obama you kind of welcomed that.
-- look you know a tenant of management is that what -- measured gets done and by any measurement that's what you're hearing from -- economists in your whole.
The deficits up 300%.
National that's up 70%.
Unemployment I agree with that general on before it's really past ten.
All of the indicators are saying that we are not coming out of the slowdown.
Because we're not solution based.
I have no problem with the president and the states wanted to go on the view.
On the other hand you don't do that.
When the head of Israel had to -- just wanna sit down and talk to in these -- -- is perilous times it doesn't make any sense.
There's a degree of arrogance here that I just find very hard to understand.
What are the markets someone asked him I mean.
You know all over the map but but they're white has -- going back and says we'll forfeited to grab that supposedly hates me.
And and and just -- it out for -- the Dow was doubled under my presidency.
Earnings are improving some of the warnings notwithstanding.
The trend is their friend and my sort what do you say to that.
Well I think the markets are it's somewhat a reflection from once we came and we have had a terrible drop in 20082009.
And we did have the real estate -- and things are slowly but surely improving to a one and a half to 2% GDP growth from a negative position.
That doesn't suggest by the way that we can't slide back into that negative position the markets tend to climb more a wall of worry.
My concern would be I think that were more than fully valued here.
I think corporate earnings are gonna start to -- and I think we have.
The risk of a sizable decline in the market.
When you say the risk of a sizable decline what what kind of declined 20%.
From from the from our highs are from the levels right for more -- right now we're gonna happen.
There's not love what I wanna see it by the way for picking -- noticeably you've been very prescient on my hands up thank you very much Joseph ground out.
An institution on Wall Street meanwhile the debate is --
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