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Joining us is Mike -- president and CEO the Philadelphia trust company.
Let Mike thanks so much for joining us we have had a number of guests recently said let the rest of the is gonna be tough.
We've got market that needs a contraction just to get back on the you know -- Solid foundation and the fact that corporate earnings -- not only going to be down.
They could be even worse than expected what do you think.
I think that QE3 like it or not has put a floor under the market that portfolio manager fatigue will continue to drive it higher.
And absent a big problem in Europe or Iran or China for the fiscal cliff which I think is now a non event.
This market's gonna continue to grind higher through year end.
But I would watch out to be very careful going into 2013 I think the first quarter through 2013 could be flat -- and then we're gonna have a problem.
How do you trade that though because it it accessing pointed out you talking to different people you get three different answers as aware this -- going right and so as a result.
People are still sitting on the sidelines miss in this rally missing.
Retirement -- in in the process where do you tell them to put your money to be safe through all these ups and downs.
It's a great it's a great point what we do is we tell them we keep a little -- cares for the high net worth portfolios we keep a little -- in cash.
We have a Barbell strategy -- those portfolios where one side of the bar -- are high dividend paying stocks with very clean balance sheets in the ability to increase those dividends in good times.
The other side a Barbell maybe some tech stocks -- some stocks that have a a little bit more data but still have the type of balance sheet stability that we look for.
In a downturn so those that type of portfolio seems to be able to weather the storm better and then also just get ready -- you know keep your eye on the exit because.
When this sands its not gonna it's not going to be pretty.
Police say Mike that sound like you think the fiscal cliff is non events but it's still leads to a lot of uncertainty businesses can't really plan and the economy gets stuck in neutral I know the Fed is.
Pumping more money into the system but what you more concerned about -- you worried about China a lot of people are now saying let -- being ignore but the slowdown there is sick.
-- -- no question about it China is a huge worry but again I think that's been kicked the little bit down the road he can't believe the numbers that are coming out of China I believe they cooked the books over there that the use the vernacular terms.
So you can't really believe what you're seeing there.
You not and that's not gonna come home to -- the next year I think China is a problem Iran is a huge problem here depending problem between Iran and Israel the markets completely ignoring net.
So I was a remarkable grind higher.
Absent some of these things coming to fruition.
I don't think they're gonna come to fruition before the election I think the market unfortunately.
Doesn't really care who's elected as long as the fiscal cliff is avoided.
And that's just basically you know putting off till tomorrow what we need to recognize today.
As I said I think thirteen going to be a real tough year I think we're gonna wake up in 2013 -- say my god what have we done.
OK -- you are not first person that has said this is gonna end poorly.
Let's get more specific about that when is it gonna end of poorly and how poorly are we talking.
I think it will and if Obama is reelected and I believe that was is is a probability now.
I think -- and when he decides that he's going to need to raise taxes in order to.
Balance the budget -- to address the issue is that as he sees it and I think those the those two factors alone.
We'll put this market on a big on a big downturn.
You mentioned businesses businesses have tremendous amounts of cash but because of the uncertainty that they see in the horizon they're unwilling to spend that cash.
So you put the individual in the same spot -- business which will happen if taxes go up.
And you've been -- grind this economy right down to a recession and I think it'll become manifest at the end of the first quarter.
I'd be happy mourned my process is undeveloped -- presidency -- I'm not healthy -- fast company you know when they were gonna wake up he says and say what the heck -- we down.
Sure thank you might celebrate parent Saint Patrick's --
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