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The Marist Institute for Public Opinion’s Lee Miringoff discusses the current polls and where pollsters get their data.
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Let's get to the election straight to the latest polls this is from the Wall Street Journal NBC Marist.
In North Carolina a state you may have thought Mitt Romney would win north -- lead.
President Obama leads 4846.
They marrying off Marist institute for public opinion is -- let's deal with North Carolina first awful -- -- would win that -- well.
Look this was the closest state in 2008 for Obama all the battleground states so this is the one the -- he's doing the best and but he's not doing very well anywhere in fact he's only within the -- it within the margin -- In North Carolina.
-- -- that poses a problem for New Hampshire.
Again I -- thought Romney would be winning significantly in New Hampshire but he's not he's down 5140 level big change in New Hampshire in terms of who's better able to handle the economy.
Romney used to be seen that way now Obama is and also the -- that the direction question right direction wrong direction.
Was down twenty points people think he was getting the wrong direction in a previous poll now it's only seven so -- -- New Hampshire.
Better off economically than other places in Romney's neighboring status not helping him there isn't helping in the Michigan nor messages is let's.
Get to the big debate you don't want that debate is all you all polls.
-- -- -- -- -- accurate because there is a question about if you look at the intelligence -- all you polling more Democrats than Republicans.
All you assuming that the voting -- of 2008.
Will be carried through to the year 2012.
It's a very important question because that's when that gets a lot of countries controversy first of all me say that these.
Three states mirror the Fox News national polls which are showing a five point lead for Obama also so the polls are showing a very similar story -- pollsters don't sect or weight -- party ID it comes from -- interviewing process so we don't look at away and say.
Let's make it look like a way people look at that and affecting each of these strip three states there's more Republicans in the word in a way but do you know they are actually effective that it do you adjust unlikely China -- -- look at likely voters is generally what you're in Q value judgments and held -- country you do what you -- judgment to professional interpretation of what I makes a likely voter how interest to people are where they bowed to previously what is they -- there's an excellent or good chance they're gonna vote despite.
And what you -- in a place like -- Nevada.
Obama has -- seven point lead among registered voters that goes down to two points among likely is it goes Republican in direction so you don't.
It's Nevada by the weigh in about it yes and Nevada Nevada ha ha I thought I'd actually I'd I think Nebraska Vernon.
And -- it's not enough.
-- a can Romney is ahead in Nebraska OK so you do make some calculation.
You do in cute.
Value into that into into into what will likely vote and how do you -- yeah.
That the difference in enthusiasts.
Let me I think -- logic should decide that there is less enthusiasm -- Obama in the -- years ago yes and -- -- also -- -- on the right to vote against President Obama -- you with how you make about it just about what we -- That in the numbers and so for example among young people eighteen to 29.
The folks -- that age group who are going to vote are much lower this time in four years ago we see it in the numbers there's still voting for Obama -- -- a lot of that why don't shows up because we talked to people why should pollster compute his own values and say well I'm an.
We talked to the voters and they tell us and then we put a -- models.
I pronounce this interview with time in.
We flood to a draw closer and ignoring a trip to fund of newcomers who vehemently election absolutely nutritious --
