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Nominal GDP vs Real GDP

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  • Description

    Russell Investments chief economist Mike Dueker gives his outlook for the economy.

  • Duration 3:22
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-- salaries are.

By and -- it's an interesting discussion.

-- could you imagine economic impact of not having football in this country and talk about a ripple effect of a lot of industries impacted.

By our nation's.

How this time there might be an increase in productivity as everybody did rush that it -- talking about football and -- fan is PT yeah this.

What I that was pretty pathetic -- on on my part to talk about the economy because as you know there was a slew of economic data points released today markets taking.

Generally weak data in stride but -- latest readings on GDP in durable goods spell trouble ahead joining me now is Mike speaker Mike is chief economist.

-- investments.

My any thoughts on directories -- that NFL with its.

Real rats are are back in business will there be an economic impact.

Well hopefully the NFL -- it will as you said we'll -- Lead to less loss for -- suited Simon worked as people discuss all this congress who calls on the weekends and I think -- via net positive for the economy.

-- -- things -- playing on so let's talk about the data -- what the durables were shockingly bad.

He also added downward revision on the second quarter GDP print so does that cause you to change your outlook.

No idea the GDP numbers being revised down to one point three for one point seven.

I think -- system in line is -- itself with the last six months we've seen a payroll employment data the payroll employment -- for the last six months as it has averaged 97000.

Dollars a month.

That's is more consistent with a one point three GDP number we saw today.

Then with the one point seven that we had previously so I think we're just reconciling.

Accounts here between GDP and employment -- guessing -- on board and with this QE3 that and so controversial.

Yes -- I I certainly am the I I view QE as a step towards nominal GDP growth targeting on the part of the Fed.

If they had this formal inflation target of 2% now.

This survey wanna leave room economy for two and a half percent real growth and that implies -- -- have present nominal GDP growth rate.

I think -- appointing a note about that is that at no point -- session on a four quarter rolling basis.

Has in the economy hit a four and a half percent nominal GDP growth rate it's always been below are so I think the Fed is justified and say we need to do more denies that -- -- Tell you -- -- nominal GDP because that vs real GD -- -- in this environment were so concerned about inflation.

And it's the real GDP right that takes into account the inflationary impact of prices so why -- you zeroing in on nominal which does not.

Well -- -- the Federal Reserve really can only control nominal variables it can make the economy grow in real terms faster than -- through.

If it can they can help nudge things they can -- you create an environment -- suitable for real growth but.

The Fed can really only targeting controlled nominal variables which is overall spend an economy that includes real growth and inflation it's the nominal level spent in the economy that's really.

All the Fed can do in president.

Targeting things and it didn't QE3 could help if he gets.

Growth expectations up for nominal spending froze to raise the revenue forecast and then they'll they'll see that some more investment -- might be in order if they can raise the revenue forecast.

Mike -- thank you for your time -- a little bit short here because of the press conference and we do appreciate you joining us this afternoon.

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