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Raymond James chief investment strategist Jeff Saut weighs in on the markets and election.
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Kevin half thank you may well our let's go to our next guest now says.
If you look at the markets the people are not so much worried about who wins the presidential election but they are worried about who controls congress so Jeff sought joins us.
Jeff -- chief investment strategist Raymond James in Naples Florida.
I today and we'll look at history for this right Jeff and you found -- about the congress.
Maybe if you look at all the different combinations.
Back to 1936.
The markets are more concerned with having Republican controlled house -- representatives.
And a Republican controlled senate.
And it doesn't really matter whether the president is a Democrat or Republican.
Under that.
Congress mean Republican.
Markets are up about 15%.
Over the next twelve months.
Okay that's it's interesting because and and -- it doesn't matter because the conventional wisdom going back to the ninety's and people talked about it.
In this most recent -- well is that gridlock.
Who is good in congress in this -- -- -- a democratic administration let's have a Republican.
-- congress or you know vice -- said.
But it's not a -- gridlock you're saying it's the particular party it's in the congress because now you might argue hey maybe we have too much -- locked up -- getting done.
Yeah that's what we've had for about the past 33 and a half years I think were surprised.
Coming out of this election.
Irrespective of who wins the presidency.
Is -- you're gonna get smarter policy makers and -- smarter policies.
And everybody I talked to inside the DC beltway realizes that -- on an unsustainable path and I think gonna see progress made.
Once this election is behind.
But Smart would be a surprise to really what I mean -- interest they pay no I mean we can joke about it but.
It really what -- over the last few years what we've seen what makes what specifically makes you think that that they'll just -- they have to figured out -- well.
I think that I'm not a Tea Party person but I think the Tea Party surfaced.
What Adam Smith wrote about in the wealth of nations where he talked about the political corruption that prevents prosperity.
And if you -- the 63 people that were brought inside the DC bell -- the mid term you'll find out the majority of you came at a private sector they are not professional politicians right and if you talk to on.
They'll tell you we really don't want to be here but we think the country's off course and we're trying to put it back on course -- It's palpable inside the beltway.
Are the real issue one last question on the relationship between the stock market and the elections particularly this time just go back to the presidential election because that.
-- Mitt Romney in a famous video that leaked out it said -- boy if I'm up in the polls you know he gave the impression of the donors down there in Florida.
From leading in the fall in the polls in the that the market will reflect that we'll see a rally.
You could argue he's not leading the polls on the market you know thirteen six on the Dow is still doing pretty well is that because people are optimistic about an Obama reelection or is that just because you don't want.
We over -- this there's not really that.
Much of a relationship between the -- I think the markets going up because we're not gonna get sucked into us secondary recession the Euro quake thing I think is off the table in the near term.
-- I don't think China falls apart.
And you've got this performance anxiety -- 11% of professional money managers are outperforming the S&P.
The rest of them got a lot of catch up to play between now and year end.
Yes there are lots of good points -- -- that it dropped 53 today about right Dodd Jeff always good to see you thanks for coming --
