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President Obama leads Mitt Romney in most of the national polls question can you trust those numbers -- the polls if you look internally.
Do they skew left.
-- -- -- -- Called growth.
Advisor to President Bush and he is -- this here in New York called welcome the program.
Thanks for haven't power panel today.
How guests on I don't know I don't know -- that you're going down hill Barney gotta gotta get the -- -- back up there flattery is the most -- of television -- good excellence all right now look if you look at the in tunnels of these polls which suggest president -- -- -- in the lead.
Is this something to suggest that those numbers are not accurate -- -- let's be very skeptical.
Of these precise poll public polls we've got a lot of them eighty -- -- in the last thirty days alone and here's where are starting point.
The biggest and best poll we have -- the exit polls and in 08.
The national exit poll showed that there were seven points more Democrats than Republicans nationwide.
And eight more Democrat eight per points more Democrats and Republicans in Ohio.
In 2000 it was dead even nationally in a five point advantage to Republicans in Ohio.
In 2003 points more Democrat nationally and in.
And one more.
Point Democrat in Ohio this is -- this is the biggest broadest sense of the partisan makeup now so can I kind of just jump in for 12 right back suggested there is indeed a skew towards polling Democrats at the national level and in Ohio is that -- -- well this this this this is -- probably what reality looks like because these are big huge polls involving.
Tens of thousands of samples taken and on Election Day -- the exit.
However let's take a look at recent polls CBS New York Times has thirteen points more Democrat in their -- than Republicans.
And a three point advantage for for Romney do we think they're going to be third -- are going to be even more Democrats.
In nationwide than there were in 2009 no ABC -- -- post six points more Democrat and Republican.
And -- one point advantage for Obama.
Who were Amman must nine points more Democrats and a seven point advantage for Obama all of those I think overstate democrats' strength.
Rescues -- which looks at the last six months of their surveys in order to arrive at its political matrix has two points more Democrats.
And it one point advantage for -- I think that's closer to reality -- any of those other polls and you similar -- in Ohio we have.
ABC were supposed brand new poll in Ohio with ten points more Democrats that would mean that Ohio would be more Democrat than was even in a way which I can't.
I don't know of a single person think that's likely to be the case.
Grab us again ten points each one of them had one of them at an eight point advantage for Obama one had a one point advantage so my point is.
If you gotta look at what is the political makeup of the poll.
And are they re -- are they taken whoever they get in their survey or they re waiting to a model and is that model.
A model based on -- weight which a lot of people use or is today.
Model that is based on -- update.
Bottom line you lost skeptical of the polls because of the Intel analysts that we've seen so far that's gonna skeptic on this I must get to -- the two poles that do re wait nationally.
To a model also show -- stable rates in those are.
Rasmussen and -- I'm concerned with the big picture here because aside from the numbers on a daily basis I think that the polls send a subliminal message to the voters out there.
Because if Spain day after day after day here Obama's ahead by five a bombs ahead I thought there it works into the Obama campaign structure -- -- well -- definitely -- Romney's.
But there's a great article Americans protect expected by Jeffrey lord of blood -- bad memories -- -- and it's about the 1980 polls.
Which consistently said the Jimmy Carter was in a -- Ronald Reagan I remember in early October I was young executive director of Texans for Reagan bush.
And Al came in New York Times poll that said of Carter was going to be Reagan in the state -- remember the -- -- -- in the headquarters.
Our headquarters was a mortuary -- -- -- -- old mortuary and and -- people would just like.
Going nuts and of course.
Reagan bush carried -- by thirteen points.
Go out just.
I think that's reflected in the consumer confidence numbers that came out today to I think people are hearing that the country is going great.
And they start to say okay maybe it is they don't know and they may affect voting that's one or deficit like look people -- -- -- -- of holding conflicting deeply conflicting opinions at the same time and make consumer count as maybe mildly.
But all the recent poll show the two users the American people think the president Obama's economic policies these are not help the economy.
Are actually herded and so many people think we're still in recession true state of public opinion right now the true state I have -- I'd I'd have to say did you take a look at look at -- this on the tenth of of of September.
Rasmussen on the tenth of -- September before.
Before the Libyan comment and 47%.
Obama yesterday 45 Obama 47.
From Karl Rove the architect.
Of the preferred.
W say that the in the American institute -- Dixon's been.
I I mean you're professional credentials that you don't have really bond thanks very -- and as for heaven's.
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