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HS Dent CEO Harry Dent and Payden & Rygel Senior Economist Jeff Cleveland on the outlook for the markets.
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Well a slew of economic data is due out next week after makes a positive and negative news recently what should we expect -- street fight.
While -- short term all we have.
Repair and the author of the great crash ahead.
CEO of HS debt Harry -- are short term bear is -- and rivals senior economist Jeff Cleveland gentlemen great to see it.
Harry we've been talking about this for years sometimes you scare the heck out debate with -- your forecast of what's gonna coming -- I can't argue with the reasons why you say bad it's bad times could be had but short term.
You have become a bull walk.
Can't fight the Fed when they come out this strong we've got an epic battle demographic trends are very pour in the next decade.
Debt is is overhanging our economy especially in the private levels far more than anybody knows.
This is causing downward pressures but the central banks and the Federal Reserve in particular keeps responding with greater and greater doses a stimulus and they just gave the markets more than they expected.
So the markets are likely to trend up -- the next several months on this now that doesn't upside is very limited we see at most 1580 to 16100.
On the S&P maybe 1416151000.
On the -- slight new highs gold can go to 2000 but we think that's it I mean every stimulus plan has had lots of factors have lasted less long -- -- the stimulus wears off in the fundamental trends kept them I think we're gonna see a bigger downturn next year but I think right now stocks for her.
I gotta buy it doesn't give him an important what do five point -- -- you think short term -- next couple of months is going to be positive long term won't work just.
Just like it hasn't worked in Japan I -- -- low interest safer -- for twenty years -- -- two decades -- two decades -- you think the Fed move could hurt.
-- I absolutely.
Markets may go higher because the market particularly equity market seems to think that there -- some connection between.
The size of the Fed's balance sheet and job creation.
And I see no -- connection I'm not sure is want so to the extent of the markets got over enthusiastic got caught up in the sugar rush over the I think they're due.
For pullback particular equities but why are Najaf.
Why are you bullish long term unlike -- I think we are going through the aftermath here in the US.
All the -- bank run a run on the financial system and -- we've had these throughout history particularly last 200 years of financial history.
And they are probably -- cause disarray we find out that.
A lot of people on foot -- homeowners regulators they made mistakes they made errors.
But through time you know 45 years -- correct those errors and we move on.
And I'm really optimistic opt for the US long run.
Because where does that growth come from data comes from the -- ideas.
Because of trade rentals of innovation rather than we actually have more of that going on now -- ten years ago her one -- gut telling -- all.
Well even even the Republican now is is -- -- -- bad stuff would trade certainly with regard to China but.
Harry we've been hearing a lot about housing recently getting kind of mixed signals.
Somehow a homebuilders we've had dabbled -- we've had in here.
-- very bullish she says and he was he's not a pollyannish kinda guy he was he was very bearish on housing now he's bullish but you -- the housing recovery.
Is somewhat artificial house so.
Double again at the Fed stopped at that we've got record low interest rates artificially induced of course housing is gonna get some -- this is a dead cat bounce if you've ever seen one in any market.
Japan did the same thing a major decline in housing it bounced slightly -- years and went back to new lows.
We've got to get back to pre bubble levels which is another 30% down in most markets on average.
Lessons some -- and others this is not over and this is where I disagree -- Jeff.
We don't get through a crisis like this until you -- leverage the debt bubble that caused all the excesses.
We've seen government debt go up six trillion private debt go down four trillion.
We've got way more to go in debt deleveraging when I see ten to twenty trillion dollars in debt he leverage -- -- private system then I'll say.
We're ready to grow I don't know that and that's no matter who's elected November by the way they're gonna have to deal with its debt overhang alright very quick -- been given one.
Question by my producer but I'm gonna give one -- -- to both the view your best thing to invest in right now Harry Dent what is it.
You know frankly -- that the US dollar's been knocked down by the you're going up lately US dollar research ultimate flight to safety in a downturn ahead.
Jeff what about you.
I think you do not bet against human ingenuity you know we had a a very famous demographer -- history.
Is -- -- -- -- and he said that the power of population would overwhelm the Earth's ability to provide.
It was -- demand.
And after that 200 years the most prosperous period in human history I think that we might be on the -- of the same thing look.
Look globally don't know look at -- domestic.
Or necessarily in the developed world we have a lot of debt problems look globally now this was dead wrong and he's -- so there you go Jeff Cleveland to Harry -- good to see of both gentlemen thank you for the debate appreciate --
