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Steve Auth, Federated Investors EVP & Global Equities CIO, on market forecasts and why he is sticking with Caterpillar.
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The last time he was here Steve off was telling you -- -- -- -- the markets and three months later while is pulled back just slightly he still expecting big gains his hit a tight.
How to get it has -- -- -- executive vice president chief investment officer global equities.
At Federated Investors are so Steve you know you you -- you hearing June -- very bullish connect with people -- a little bit -- talking about the timing about decision well our our.
I think you -- is that the markets have a really sharp run off those you most now and you've got a bunch of weak what I -- weak longs -- bears have been forced into this market I think the action today -- even talk about in commodities.
Is that -- for potentially precursor to a little bit of a broader pullback in equities maybe three to 5% in the near term.
They've been forced in by Central Bank action.
But they're not really believers a long term story so -- It -- holding up but not that's our area but the Central Bank action though that would that we we -- -- the dollar continue to be depressed against the Euro that's simple sign.
For commodities what we saw today huge pullback on on basically wherever -- fortunate you know part of -- markets -- yeah.
But that that the reason that rumors wheel drive people went to be sellers is they're not big believers in the longer term story and I think that's what we have right now.
And we're vulnerable to a little bit of a pullback we think longer term were heading for 1650 on the S&P so we be -- this -- I doing it because they were here in June with Leslie you actually sent 1450 on the S&P by the end of the year we've actually hit that marker.
What about now you're still think we're gonna get a bit of a pullback to think that we -- continue to push higher about that number.
We haven't changed our year end target Shura which implies we think we're probably gonna -- quarter here and you know we've certainly got a lot of liquidity coming in from the Fed but we've also got the election ahead of us.
Because sausage making in Europe we've got an earning season to get through.
So I think you know the market has some two directional risk near term.
Is that they're making your sausage -- other news making one big mess I do and ask you about a couple of things -- -- next election.
You know you're -- tell your clients right now but it if there were some kind of massive Republican sweep and Washington it would be very -- markets.
I -- congress you talk about the White House.
Yes well it really because in this fiscal cliff you almost need to have one party in charge in order to get someone's hands firmly on the steering wheel and keep this -- from going off the cliff so.
We think the most bullish outcome for the markets is either all Democrat -- Republican and government doesn't seem like you're gonna general democratic government so I think you know Republican sweep would -- be viewed -- OK doesn't think -- with LA -- I -- told our viewers of -- going up to break that there was a stock that you're sticking wet.
That is Heller and actually the stock is higher much higher since you've picked it in June realistic what that.
We're still with that we think the last leg to drop on the global reflation trade is China they haven't joined the party had European US obviously ended when they do -- Caterpillar really starts to move --
