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Moody’s Chief Economist John Lonski and Generation Opportunity President Paul Conway on the state of the job market.
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Is that joining us now dot Lionsgate.
Moody's chief economist and Paul Conway former chief of staff for the US Department of Labor.
-- wanna start with you on something if -- a lot of criticism today about.
The number a lot of feeling out there that these numbers are reliable from the government it's gonna -- -- up -- down how do you respond about.
I actually think at this point is gotten pretty absurd the integrity of the numbers not only for the weekly jobless claims -- now for the monthly unemployment numbers.
I think actually congress sought exercise and -- -- on this and take a hard look at it because it's been month after month after month the revisions I think it's over sixty weeks now.
Of revisions on the weekly alone but when you get into this monthly number the reason why -- very important.
Is because of Wall Street and because of those who are actually following this it actually impacts the economy.
And so for that number to be less than reliable or to have less.
Integrity unit than what it should appear to have I think is actually cause for congress to take a hard look at it has some questions -- labor secretary.
And yet you know John the White House immediately coming out and saying that -- report was.
Was okay in their opinion that you know things are getting better we're much better off than we were four years ago -- as the slogan we keep hearing.
And the Democrats that Romney has another take on that of course -- -- is the economy that much better SA's job report not that bad.
Always may be better but does it really matter it's better relative to what the worst recession since the Great Depression.
I mean we still have big reduction in jobs since Obama took office back in January of 2009.
-- worse yet.
We have four point seven billion fewer jobs today I believe that we did.
Back in January.
Of 2008.
Consumer confidence numbers that are very low.
Make it.
Very clear that.
This economic recovery is the worst the -- this business cycle upturn since the 1930s.
We can't -- and John as well why don't listen to something because Fox News channels Bret -- actually sat down.
Where's Mitt Romney and he asked him about the issue issue number one jobs in the economy here's Mitt Romney's response.
This.
And I know the White House keeps saying that you can't look at just monthly numbers but if you look over the last several quarters.
The last several years you see the continued pattern which is that we're not created the jobs we need to create.
To put Americans back to work.
For every net new jobs created about four people dropped out of the the workforce so we're going in the wrong direction.
I mean Paulson didn't -- that's the issue here was the fact of the labor to separation participation rate a drop so substantially people are giving.
Up dean egg I get a go back to the belief in these numbers can literally believe them and number two how troubling is continue.
At the labor participation rate is as close -- -- now.
I tell you this is very troubling because the only reason why the number went down -- 368000.
Americans.
Many of whom people out there watching rate now know personally.
Are no longer looking for work.
So instead of celebrating a number of eight point one with the White House is basically doing is you're saying hey it's eight point one it's a good report but it's only good report because less people -- working we need to get to the point where in America.
We say it's fantastic when more people go to work in this shouldn't just be a numbers game.
Calculated to sixty days from now on an election -- these are real people in their real lives for young Americans alone right now the unemployment rate is twelve point 7%.
One point seven million are not counted and that monthly unemployment rate for young Americans would be sixteen point 7%.
And John -- respond of those numbers because what Paula saying here is that frankly our economy is going in the wrong direction.
Especially with youth unemployment -- going to be economic effect of that.
-- -- -- but it really.
You know darkened the outlook for the future of the US economy because when young people are are not -- -- not gaining skills.
They don't gain skills of the ever go back to work they're gonna be very unproductive they're -- be costly.
To train.
And that's going to be a drag.
On economic activity this -- you know horrible waste of talent.
And it's the young people -- have the skills the new ideas that are so very and important to -- assuring.
And adequate rate of economic growth.
You know Paul -- lean on you for this one as well if you look at that labor participation rate in particular -- men.
Is the lowest since then.
Since 1948 when records began for this.
How troubling is that to you.
It that's very troubling I mean part of the reason why is because some of the industries that have been hardest hit in the economy manufacturing.
Housing that type of thing or are represented.
You could say or the experts would say by -- -- -- story that didn't get reported here is the biggest drop in labor force participation rate for women.
And that's 57 point 6% the only time it's been lower than that.
Is in 1991 and at that point you had a labor secretary that took to the stage under president George H.
W.
Bush Lynn Martin and said that glass ceiling has got to be smashed but where's the outrage today.
And especially for -- young women were taken on debt and trying to succeed and all the effort -- has been done for so many years you just heard a week's worth -- messaging.
About how one party is against women but the party that's actually control here says nothing when it's the biggest drop in labor force participation.
For women.
Paul does a great point and we just talk about the glass selling another time absolutely Madonna wanna get something a little -- areas.
Avenue and that of course as mr.
Ben Bernanke the Fed their meeting next week and you know the markets didn't really -- and I think -- I thought they would today to the fact -- looks like there's gonna -- -- the trigger that he needs to pull the plug on more stimulus.
You know what state -- that John do you think that today it was was the final.
Clip that we needed -- -- -- do something.
Global likelihood.
Of additional monetary stimulus went up in response to the weaker than expected employment report.
But I wouldn't put the probability.
At being much above 50%.
You know despite.
Troubling news from the employment -- that also applies to flat wages.
And relatively flat hours of work.
We have -- pretty good showings like auto sales -- retail chains sales and by home sales.
And -- -- -- improve performance by household expenditures.
Tends to offset.
The VO troubling new -- That was provided by today's weaker than expected employment reported that may.
-- put the Fed on hold until the next meeting.
All right we'll call John thanks to both to be done -- yeah I didn't bring up those estimates like about it then that light up the hunt -- -- -- Friday.
And -- big is that what's your little -- also brings her that they want somebody you've -- gentlemen thank you very much appreciate it.
