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Aston/TAMRO Funds Portfolio Manager Tim Holland and Raymond James President of Fixed Income Kevin Giddis on where investors should consider putting th...
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Let's bring in our bull -- bear we have Tim Holland -- our bulletin Kevin get -- as our bear and and Tim I'll begin with you because it's.
A little challenging to be able right now especially when you -- disappointing jobs number I guess you could -- -- so what's behind your bullishness right now.
Wanna pick up on the on the prior guests on last comment there's a tremendous amount of money on the sidelines this is an asset class that has been sold by investors for five years now and you talked to people -- determine the markets.
Low double digits -- double digits in the look at you like you have three hence no one seems to believe.
This rally and so from a fundamental perspective.
-- the way we look at things that camera capital.
There's a tremendous amount of money on the sidelines.
Housing market we think bottom sometime in the back half of last year so what was it.
Headwind is now significant.
Tail end and back to monetary policy you have not just the Fed but the ECB.
Over in China as well any central bank of any importance.
-- created tremendous amount of liquidity.
Which along with -- think that think still constructive valuation and fundamentals are those things -- are positive for our free or stocks.
Right Kevin you were fixed income guy.
But you don't wanna be all in cash either because you're you're not quite that cautious -- ago.
Still like the media bond sector -- data did you it looks like gun you know on up.
On a relative basis.
That taxes are going lower they're probably either gonna stay the -- -- go higher so on a relative basis.
Taxable equivalent -- that come from -- missile bonds.
Our great investment if you don't wanna go the tax -- -- taxable municipal bonds or even a better investment they're better than corporates the default rates are lower in I think there's a great investment still left.
Why it why wouldn't we wanna -- tax -- what's the William -- you may need to lower tax bracket to afford to matter in other words -- to achieve something now.
In a taxable equivalent basis that's better than say corporate bond you would need to be at least another 30% tax bracket.
If you're a blow that you'd probably look for the alternative to corporates which would be taxable municipal bond.
Tim looking at equities though as you as you pick names -- -- -- names your Q pick sectors and if so what do you like right now.
Sure -- terror capital partners were stock pickers and we focus on companies that possesses sustainable.
Competitive advantage and -- -- that follow in that domestic.
Sort of American economic Renaissance even in fits and starts.
Conversation one would be Macy's which is -- largest department store operator in the country and the other would be Chico's.
Which is a specialty.
Apparel.
Our retail -- -- -- led by management teams executed multi year very it's awful turnaround programs folks on merchandising.
And improving the customer experience.
And and -- in in our experience -- we think the the American woman the American -- the last person come back to the stores.
And that's because she tends to be responsible for her households finances tend to be a bit more conservative puts her family first.
And we think she's finally coming back and if you look at the same store sales numbers out of Macy's she -- we think even with a weak jobs number of the US consumer.
Is in pretty good shape and and the American mothers is finally coming back to it that the companies like those two.
Am I like your focus on the small side -- even in -- you -- small side with glacier bank based in Montana -- glacier quickly.
It's just fantastic bank -- -- Montana.
Never cut the dividend never took TARP yields over 3% they've lived with some really tough -- -- markets in -- and in Jackson Hole Wyoming pretty famous ski town out there.
And that have the most recent quarter David they grew their -- look for the first time.
In over three years and reported record net income if you think real estate is back if you think the US economy in fits and starts is back.
Well capitalized well managed banks are probably gonna do pretty well the next -- we have.
It is not absolutely sure that housing is back are you again there's still looking at inventory non in my my -- -- he said even how bad it will bounce record door down hard nothing.
So I thought I think -- this housing is certainly making a rebound but dumb.
The real focus would be on existing home sales as we start seeing in the -- decline.
Then I'll then I'll buy into -- the right now even with the shadow inventory on bank balance sheets.
-- he's got a little ways to go Kevin before -- -- the Fed move next week or not.
I think they actually do you think they're they're kind of in a back -- a quarter to do this within the number below a 100000 gonna probably see a sudden I have a QE3.
-- how much and watch it.
Platform partner Tim -- -- Kevin get us thank you reverend Scott.
