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Wells Fargo Chief Macro Strategist Gary Thayer on the Presidential election’s impact on the outlook for the economy.
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Election Day is that two months away today's jobs report highlights just how fragile our economy is but.
Your wallet here with a look at the key factors -- need to watch for the fall Gary Thayer chief macro strategist at Wells Fargo hi Gary great to have you.
Citi lowest -- people talking about voting with their pocketbook.
If that is the case what should voters be keeping the closest -- on in terms of what could influence our personal economies.
Well I think the outcome of the election this year is gonna play a big role in what we see an economy next year.
Unfortunately we don't know the outcome yet -- so there's a lot of uncertainty around election.
But I think what voters are gonna be choosing is -- what.
Role that they want the government to play in the economy did they wanna move forward with the existing policies are they happy with.
What we're seeing our chart we gonna see something that's going to be more of a change in.
The outcome of course is gonna affect how we address the fiscal cliff at the end of the year in which -- -- proposals were more likely to see adopted.
So what policies would help the economy grow faster.
Well you know there's a trade -- fell one time you know if you have a smaller role for government debt.
You do ten maybe to get more private sector involvement in the economy and may be more job creation.
From the private sector.
But then again you have may not have as much of a social safety net below the below the economy and -- I think for the time for.
The economy to -- to adjust -- that so.
In others of both parties offer something they're just different things that the voters have to choose between and you know this election's going to be close when we think.
But do you have to prepare.
-- sector balance sheet if you will because.
For example is dividend taxes go up -- taxes across the board.
The policy changes -- -- you know -- you know what I'm saying hey look at we've had death -- -- has just come on talking about expectations for higher -- tax loss selling things of that nature.
So OK there's all this uncertainty out here we've heard it for months and months and months.
So how do we best prepare.
But you know I think the markets have already discounted -- certainly part we see a lot of investors who.
Because of that uncertainty are holding very defensive positions.
Rather than taking a lot of risk ahead of the elections.
Obviously if we get to.
You know -- more of the same out of Washington and we do see the the tax changes that are going to raise dividends.
Rates or capital gains rates on.
Taxes that after the election we'll probably see a big market impact as people try to adjust for what they think will be the new tax rates after the election.
But right now I think we're more of an area sort of a storm watch not a storm warning type of the situation.
In other words we have the preconditions for some potential problems but we don't know exactly what they are so we can't exactly do the right warning.
Sandy uncertainty but.
-- -- -- what's bottom line prediction on where you think the economy heads between now and the election given the jobs number that we saw today given that direction that we have out there what do you think happens.
Between now and November.
Well what we're anticipating is more of the same we're thinking economy's growing and about it -- 2% rate we're gonna see some modest uptick in inflation.
Probably before the election that we won't see probably much different jobs numbers than what we saw today.
So I think going into the election what we're gonna see is a lot of voters that are going to be.
Looking at the did two choices here.
And I tell you it's a difficult period for an incumbent party.
Two.
Get reelected in environment where.
The economy is weak and -- is as low as it is right now doesn't mean it can't happen but the voters I think -- gonna have.
Play big role in -- determining direction economy next year.
Gary there thanks for -- now says.
