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We got hit with that weaker than expected August jobs report today again we want to stress we saw job creation but at 95000 I mean it's not at all what people had hoped for or expected so let's bring in the team.
To shake it down and break it down first we start with Peter -- is in Washington we also have rich -- at the White House Robert Gray is in the newsroom at.
And RBC's -- -- angles is in the studio with lots of money in assets under management at first rich at some let me start with you.
And -- and you look at these numbers it's not just a 96000 jobs created much slower than expected.
Revisions for the last couple of months showing 41 -- thousand jobs created unemployment falls to eight point 1% from eight point three but that's very much reflection.
Of people dropping out of the labor force 368000.
Decline there the participation rate the lowest in a generation.
At 63 and a half percent to reaction here at the White House they say look you can't take.
One jobs numbers part of -- trend even though the trend seems to be troubling over the last six months.
And they say -- jobs are at least positive and if congress and Republicans would do more like past the White House jobs plan.
There would be more job creation Republicans say this is not the time for more stimulus they should pass their jobs proposals which of course -- And can conflict with every now with one another and and so from here the political gridlock continues Liz -- not gonna get anything on jobs -- fiscal cliff -- like that.
Until after the election.
Right and the question is is that it's this conundrum do you wait one more month like that Keith -- was thinking I mean we get to Peter Barnes for the Federal Reserve Bank a lot all of this and Peter.
Just two days ago we asked our traders on the floor show.
What they thought would happen if we got a bad number what we did today here to us.
What is the one thing that if the Fed were to see if they jump in immediately with QE3 during your first.
Unemployment numbers are are are really bad Belgium break spike.
I agree with during I have doubt finally Scott.
I think of that unemployment rate gets about eight point 5% guaranteed.
But it didn't get there infected tick down but the number of job creation is still pretty weak Peter so best guess inside the beltway -- that's gonna do.
The Fed is gonna pull the trigger on something that's definitely gives Bernanke and the doves on the Fed.
More ammunition to do something next week.
You some of the guests in the floor -- already talked about some of the options at a minimum.
The Fed will.
Likely from the economists -- that I'm getting notes from today.
Extend the forward guidance.
Saying -- committing to keeping interest rates exceptionally low.
From -- currently.
Now extend that into 2015 minute -- even to 2016 who knows.
A little bit less of a chance of five QE3 here because remember they're still doing Operation Twist right now which is there a bond buying program.
They're trying to extend go -- -- the yield curve to longer maturity -- keep.
Long term interest rates low and push them even lower so they might wait another month before they do another round up for another but the data before they pull the trigger on on QE3.
We'll see that's the question in what form but Robert -- the Democrats would say we now have twenty plus months of job creation granted not robust but in some cases.
Trickle will and they take it will take it but we'd rather see it better there's got to be growth somewhere.
You know what's interesting -- is that you like at a labor force in August of 2854.
Point 65 million people well here we are four years later.
It's exactly the same 154 point 65 million now -- Internet 68000.
People left the workforce in August.
What's -- are -- these are people who are actively searching -- so you've got this three decade low for just measuring what's unclear Liz is -- entrepreneur -- self employed workers who left their jobs.
They're sort of -- -- gray area they're not counted but what is clear here is it going all the way back to 1948.
There's never been a period where labor force growth.
Was flat like this before so clearly unprecedented time.
That's right that's right areas we haven't seen or gone to before Janet angles is the money equation here issues with RBC wealth management what do you think.
A couple things from the employment standpoint we think the numbers -- week everyone's been saying that a couple of other points to put with the employment numbers average hourly average weekly earnings decline for the second month in a row.
And that employment to population.
Number a one year low with 58 point 3% and last but not least sort of up precursor of things to come.
When you look at the short term unemployed those individuals unemployed for five weeks or less.
Highest number since June of 2011.
Clearly from an employment standpoint we are stagnating.
And I think a from the Fed's perspective aptly 100% chance that you'll see an extension of the language probably better than 70% chance of QC QE3 next -- do you expect that we tip over back into recession no.
-- that's what we like -- quick definitive now for now the closing bell ringing.
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