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Payden Rygel chief economist Jeff Cleveland argues the jobs report is not a sign we will go into a recession.
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Thanks -- them.
Well -- -- -- a patent and right Gail says don't focus just on this one report there are other economic indicators out there that are a better indication of where we are.
He joins -- right now from Los Angeles talking.
-- -- This report Jaffray it was a huge -- by the economist.
Your colleagues across the country frankly how do we get enough so often and in.
-- it's our audience.
Well it's tough you know I I think we put too much faith in one.
One report one number we need to look at that a wide array of -- data points and and not just focus any big error bars on these reports are wide plus or minus a 100000 so.
You you can't YouTube -- sites -- I think if you look at ADP report from yesterday.
You -- plus 200000 or so and private sector jobs and that's a sign of continued slow growth what what -- -- I -- -- merely good not bad and how you believe the numbers and and I and I am saying yesterday that they ADP number was a head fake and it won't.
I think one month and it's on target with the government over the next -- it's not -- mean how -- -- -- -- there.
The reality is they're probably -- seen two different swaths of the of the labor market so.
-- look at both of them independently and and not look at them so much I would committee ADP to guest of the elastic take it as a another indicator -- -- labor market health and it's point two continued moderate growth nothing stuff.
Well -- I think I do not bothered by the report today at the jobs report did -- don't think it's that that you said that that we're gonna look at.
I think we're doing okay there's not assign a we're about to dip into a new recession.
But I don't think it's great by any stretch of the imagination okay does put to rest one big myth out there Cheryl.
That the White House manipulates the BLS report because if they did.
I doubt this is the report they would produce plus one 96000 jobs that they would look for something else I don't think it helps.
That -- in in that -- it's not Gannett.
I don't think it's -- this way the Fed in either direction.
I think you're you need to look at a three month average it's certain it's pretty weak.
The job market is is weak.
And the Fed has already made up its mind that that they're gonna go down the stimulus -- again -- question is we go -- what form that.
Let me let me stop Gunn -- though because that's been the big question here I mean you would think that fed watchers tripled bet on gold.
We'll be jumping up and down today after the jobs report we just got this morning because this this takes away pretty much all doubt that the Fed.
Is is may have to do something next week when they -- -- -- have.
Did it whether -- bond buying whether -- stimulus what have.
I mean do at least agree with that the Bernanke's got really no choice at this point he said he was -- an act isn't gonna act.
I don't think this report is get you know.
Convince the hawkish members that you need to ease and I'll think it's gonna convince the more dovish members of the FOMC that -- That they need to you know stay away from -- -- -- -- either -- because that that actually the real debate is not whether do we they should do more the real debate Cheryl is.
Can the Fed do anything that will work to bring the unemployment rate down and rapid fashion.
And our answer on that our longstanding view is not so they will go down the stimulus -- I still think it's probably more open mouth.
Operations -- minutes and an actual bond buying it although last week Bernanke told us -- fireworks and he's gonna try some -- he did tell us that.
But I don't think it's gonna bring the unemployment rate down quickly and monetary policy is not the answer here and Mike and Jeff.
Equivalent paid our -- you're you're a heck of an optimist -- body back they can't.
