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American Enterprise Institute’s Alex Brill on the lack of the outlook for the job market.
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The Democratic National Convention will be book ended this week with two numbers.
That -- to find the Obama administration today the sixteen trillion dollar debt in the persistently high unemployment rate.
Over 8% for every month of the Obama presidency except one.
That was the month he was sworn into office joining me now for a preview of Friday's jobs numbers is Alex -- from the American Enterprise Institute -- welcome to the show.
I would start with the Wall Street consensus on this report because they've you know we always study way at the expense -- looking for and I'm wondering if you agree.
First of all they believe that the unemployment rate will stick -- eight point 3%.
But they believe the jobs will grow by a 125000.
Well below what happen in July.
When total jobs nonfarm jobs that is grew by a 163000.
Do you agree with those numbers.
I think that's definite ballpark it's difficult now that a specific number -- this hour between one point five and 150 but we'll see on Friday.
And those numbers however are not good numbers.
Now they're not and at 163.
Year 125.
Adding that number of jobs each month doesn't make for a strong and a robust economy and it doesn't lead to -- rebound in manufacturing.
What do we need what will it take.
To get back to -- really a healthy economy.
-- we need numbers that are roughly double that.
At least so we were adding over 200000.
250.
250000 jobs a month.
We would be in a robust labor market recovery we haven't had a month like that since I can't remember when.
And the truth of the matter is -- you know the unemployment rate as you noted over 8%.
For coming not coming up on for years now.
And that is there's no reason to think that that number's gonna budged at that Friday's number could tick down could take up.
But we're gonna be north the -- percent balloting for the foreseeable future.
Is that so that's the new norm that's what we have to expect -- Americans 8% unemployment that's just not acceptable.
It's not and I don't think it's persistent forever.
But for example the Congressional Budget Office that those score keepers here in Washington.
They predict the unemployment rate will be north of 8% for 2013.
And 2000 -- team.
Before it really starts to come down and we see improvements in the labor market well I want to share some.
With either the Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke had to say get your reaction.
This was out August 31 -- said these stagnation in the labor market in particular is a grave concern because persistently high levels of unemployment will -- structural damage.
On our economy that could last for many years what do you make -- that are we headed for some kind -- structural problem in our.
In our jobs market.
I think there is a serious problem without labor market at present.
And it's not actually best reflected by the overall unemployment rate you have to dig down a little bit deeper into the numbers to see how severe the situation is.
What I look at is the long term unemployment numbers how many people have been unemployed for six months or more.
That number is five point two million people.
Last month double what it was when President Obama and to the White House.
That level of long term unemployment the average duration of unemployment is nearly nine months.
It makes it very very difficult for those workers to ever get back to work in the longer that we have that sort of dynamic and our labor force.
We don't just suffer economic consequences as those people struggle.
But to get back to work but there are -- that more significant social problems as as depression nonsense.
I had Stanley start to break apart also to difficult problems will do well people's face what do we -- I don't think -- the single solution I don't think that any particular single policy has got her right.
Our labor markets our economy overall I think we need to pay -- a wholesale.
Reexamination.
-- -- set a policies.
When he got a better education -- policies in the states that a more outcome given we need a better tax system that encourages labour participation capital accumulation.
We need more open markets to to encourage trade and particularly to promote exports.
All of those pieces if taken together.
Constitute what the solution for putting the US economy back on track well Alex comebacks in it was a pleasure speaking with you thank you thanks for.
