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This morning's data showing US construction spending fell in July by the largest number in a year we've got somebody who says paying no attention to that.
Were already passed the housing bottom and getting set to ride the wave hired -- that's positive right joining me now American Arab -- I hate -- chief economist.
Well you're about that but your your your little lukewarm about the entire economy but let's start with the good stuff first chairman.
Specifically housing so we have hit bottom because I'm more inclined to listen to you about a bottom and I am about homebuilders we're always hoping for a bottom.
You're right you have to -- careful about the optimism within the industry itself but if you look at a lot of that.
Numbers coming out in number of foreclosures.
You look at the housing activity -- home sales home prices.
They're all starting to look better than they did say a year ago so we've come -- bottom but the recovery.
Is is still fairly weak even in housing but the good news is it's no longer drag on the economy and -- improving hello.
Okay there's somebody things I want to tick off quickly with few jobs report on Friday for the month of fact.
August and and what are you expecting first of all and number two -- show over the -- just sit traders are focusing that much on -- because the bar is set so low.
Well I think that's right and I we we don't expect a great number will be horrible -- about a 130000.
In the unemployment rate stuck at eight point three so as you know it's not bad.
But it's not great either so in that sense -- gonna probably they'll you know markets a shrug it off.
Jackson hall -- everybody was waiting on Bernanke it was sort of full of sound and fury signifying not much until maybe next week when they actually have a meeting what happens will we see QE3 -- quantitative easing.
It sure looks like cat I think I think he had Bernanke and the others to set the stage.
We're doing another around 5600 billion something about order of magnitude.
Primarily by what.
-- -- -- for the markets on the psychology because there was some question not according to Bernanke but others that that.
192 didn't do that much what would three do we know traders in the markets would love it but what is the bomb -- We won't get that big of a bomb.
I think the way to look at it is as an insurance policy.
So things don't get worse.
And that's the way I think accuse the other these various rounds -- quantitative easing it's a way given that we don't have anything else we can do is just the way of preventing things from getting worse.
A Bernanke put out many many data points.
And in fact he said one of the things that he that he she said that one of the quantitative easing programs or -- all of them have raised the level of output by nearly 3%.
-- what is your assessment of that.
Well I'm I'm not gonna debate with -- we -- the chairman of the -- I will say there where.
We're props not as upbeat about the impact that -- -- that's a big impact he suggests thing.
I think it has some impact largely.
Long term interest rates lowering borrowing costs.
It did help to weaken the dollar so there was an impact -- a positive impact well let anybody has had no impact on inflation and so so it's all positive but it small.
Well anybody refinancing -- -- -- -- modifying their mortgage certainly liked it and and you know you have downgraded your GDP you've lowered your second half GDP to what one point 4% from 2%.
Why don't you write to me that almost looks -- products this this economy is just right yeah.
Does -- stop and.
It -- -- that's a good work.
That's a good word.
-- you know it's I think what's happening is yeah we're losing momentum I think.
There's a lot of waiting and seeing going out.
Business is waiting to see what happens with a fiscal -- you're talking about that earlier -- waiting to see what the Fed does a lot of back.
Thank you -- pair of issues is usually very bullish I HS chief economist says we've hit a bottom and how.
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