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Will the Election Drive the Markets?

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  • Description

    Heritage Capital CIO Paul Schatz gives his outlook for the markets.

  • Duration 3:09
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Right Nicole thanks so much.

So sounds cooling off from their third straight monthly gain -- my next guest isn't so -- by the recent rally and he thinks the election will drive the action this far this fall.

You know most chance heritage capital president and chief investment officer thanks so much for joining us.

I'm Melissa good to see yeah see you think there's going to be a significant increase in volatility over the next few months.

Yet this is been a quiet -- July and August since 2005.

-- -- be really quiet and then starting at 06 we had an absolute -- huge expansion of volatility during the summer's been.

It's like watching paint dry for July August of 2012.

Normally -- volatility contraction -- volatility get really quiet the next step is expansion.

This can go on for a couple of days or weeks but eventually.

The market's gonna get a pretty healthy dose of volatility.

Certainly outside of what we've seen.

We haven't seen big you know multi hundred point days in a long time that's coming down the road certainly if not in September certainly -- -- the fourth quarter.

But ask for what direction we're moving at that point I mean you sort of have all your bases covered you say -- either gonna get a good shot to the downside with the bottom in mid to late October and then rally big.

Are we gonna grind higher the election -- -- see -- final gas higher to significant peak followed by declined eight year and I don't know so which -- it is okay.

I think and -- right up -- -- markets living on borrowed time there's so many cracks in the pavement over the intermediate term.

You know you've got things like the Russell lagging -- mid caps lagging sector leadership is really it's mediocre at best.

I don't I dismiss volume totally.

This sentiment that it is a bunch of things over the intermediate term that -- me liquidity in out of money in cash sloshing around is beginning to wane.

If you things that are left the advance decline line recent made an all time high that's a positive.

And junk bonds until today.

-- -- -- got hit pretty good today so it's not democratic cover the bases that there's a couple of maps that you could look at based on previous election cycles one is.

This slow grind higher continues into the election.

I'll in 1980 and then we decline hard after that.

You're welcome Paul what's your -- what do you think it's gonna happening and how would you bet your money and donate it sounds like it can go either way that doesn't help me.

No well and and frankly in the short to me -- September 12 all so -- -- summing things will be revealed on the -- get the German courts.

He had the ECB so lot's gonna happen next week that -- nine -- that will determine what happens over the next you know three months.

I'm I think we do have one more shot to the upside I think we we we we we poke above two new 2012 highs.

And that's -- the opportunity -- for the polls.

It takes them off the table so we do get a shot the upside in September I think it's done not returning more than it would be folks piling on that the market move higher.

I'm really really worried about stocks like Google and Amazon and especially apple into next year and the year after that they can see the prices cut literally in half.

Wow okay.

Paul -- thanks for joining us -- --

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