Also in this playlist...
This transcript is automatically generated
-- democratic strategist and former Howard Dean campaign manager Joseph tripping and Joseph amenable last you the same question that -- that we asked to have mr.
What is what do the Democrats have to -- -- -- right now is so close.
By the I think both for the conventions.
Have to her about essentially the same things helping fill in the -- -- on Mitt Romney.
It all the polls show that people are basically made their decision about President Obama they still.
30% of the American people are saying they don't have enough information about Mitt Romney I think the Republican Convention had been about.
You know putting his his vision out there try to fill those points and I think the -- -- Campaign in the DNC.
Is going to be about doing the same thing it's going to be about.
Defining this campaign in a way that pushes off Romney -- I think you'll see a lot more.
Focus on Romney did we saw on Obama -- Republican Convention.
Well yes in the we've we've had.
Four years plus to get to know Barack Obama right but at the same time one of the one of -- things that these people that are undecided which I'd.
Find interest in at this point but we live and our little bubble so.
They they talk about the fact that they don't know Mitt Romney.
But they yelled -- with the minutes that somebody says something they say well -- blind and the other side says he's line in the go back and forth about growth all this information that you're supposed to try to figure out -- you wanna vote for.
Is all a lot.
That and that that's true in the end the with starts getting back to other factors like like ability and right now.
More people like -- the president likable than they find Mitt Romney so -- if you stay.
This is why -- why we're in such a negative fix.
Right now from both sides.
And where that may benefit Obama.
Because he he he he wins on some of these things like like -- -- ability where he may not have great job approval.
But Mitt Romney has horrible thing.
Favorable unfavorable numbers so I think you're gonna see the Obama campaign in the -- yes look they're gonna put forth.
A positive message about Barack Obama but I think they're gonna try to keep the pressure on.
On Mitt Romney at the convention keep making the case.
That he's not -- -- that he's gonna get tax breaks for the wealthy -- the case of they've been making the continue to make that case.
In a very strong tough way as they did throughout the summer.
And I think -- -- you know the the the -- will be when we look at all the polls after both the conventions are over.
Did Mitt Romney gave his positive message out because he he was able do that in the primaries because of the fight.
He wasn't able do it over the summer because of the tough this I think that the Obama campaign their ability to keep him answering in reacting to -- -- -- Did he do it in his convention.
Or did the Democrats sort of keep the pressure on through the conventions and if so I think.
If Romney doesn't get his -- definition out there -- the Democrats are -- wanted it there could mention.
Then I think this the -- you have to give the edge of President Obama look at that point is if it's not and I think that's different what you've -- you've also got.
And it appears to be you tell me doesn't the last word have an advantage and doesn't an incumbent have an advantage.
Well you know.
There's been the -- has done a study on convention bounces in what really affects things it turns out the campaign that was ahead.
At the end of both conventions actually.
Has won every election of the last forty years.
What's fascinating is the out party -- party that's out of the presidency.
Tend to have a much bigger bounce within the incumbent party out of their convention so that we're gonna see.
-- it's not necessarily know bombing has them that gets the best shot because -- last word.
It's it's gonna be how big a bounce did Romney did from from their convention.
Expecting -- to have a bigger bounce -- Obama.
Does Obama's convention bounce enough to keep -- still close and in the fight it out all the way to November.
But it there you I I suspect Romney's gonna have a bigger bounce and Obama does because of the -- -- history of how how conventions.
Work for the insurgent party vs the incumbents but -- -- but there's always exceptions I'll go back to bush forty wonder who.
And what's Indian company was the vice president under Reagan.
That do caucus -- I believe that race was extremely close at that convention or maybe even.
Bush was behind new caucus at the convention time and we know that George Bush 41 went on to -- Well no that's -- -- actually that that proves a point.
Was the insurgent party.
And it was it was bush at that point who was the incumbent party was in the incumbent he was you know the vice president but he was.
Was the incumbent party -- I remember right to caucus surged to a huge -- coming out of his convention and we all five.
And then in any was just the he just didn't they never really recovered -- mean in -- The bush -- bush got a big bounce and they went on the attack and but also backdating conventions were much earlier than they are today it'd -- that that that these two conventions are.
Are pretty late in the process compared to where they used to be back -- children's.
Will be debates.
Uncertainty for those few people that don't know what they wanna do yet.
Yeah I mean I look I think the debates are going to be very big factor this crime and admit that.
The same thing happens I mean I remember I work for vice president Mondale in his race against Ronald Reagan and there was something about those early to to to -- early I think one or two debates where.
When Mondale just being on stage with the president raised his.
His Robert -- factor if you will.
It and we we moved a little bit so I I suspect Romney will benefit from the debates as well for the same reason -- -- If he's able to hold its own would this -- the sitting president of the United States it.
The -- makes him.
All right so he he if he can do that he he he is he'll survive the debates in the -- may actually get a lift from them as well.
Did and Romney seal the deal or close the gap on the gender gap that's been out there.
I think she I think look I think she was a best weapon the Romney campaign has to do that I think she gave an excellent speech at the convention and and and it and I and I mean I've got nothing.
But praise for that speech in which she was able accomplish -- again.
If there is a big bounce out of this convention -- a good measure of that should go to the credits to go in Romney and in which she was able view on it.
In her speech.
Interest and Joseph -- thanks always -- -- to get your ideas thanks for joining thanks for having me.
Filter by section